气候变化关注、风险对冲需求与股票超额收益
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作者单位:

1.重庆大学管理科学与房地产学院;2.厦门大学经济学院、王亚南经济研究院;3.厦门大学经济学院

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F830.9;F832.5

基金项目:

国家社科基金重大项目(20&ZD055),国家自然科学基金面上项目(71971180,72171201).


Climate change attention, risk hedging demand and stock excess returns
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1.School of Management Science and Real Estate, Chongqing University;2.Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, Xiamen University;3.School of Economics, Xiamen University

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    摘要:

    近年来全球气候变化的日益加剧引起了广泛关注. 本研究首先将气候变化关注引入基于消费的资本资产定价框架,通过理论建模分析投资者的气候变化关注如何影响个股预期回报;然后基于气候变化关键词的百度资讯和百度指数构建气候变化关注指标,从影响效应和作用机制两个角度对中国A股市场上市企业进行实证检验. 主要结论有:第一,气候变化关注贝塔与个股未来超额收益呈负相关关系,且这种负向影响是时变的,在气候变化关注度越高时效果越显著. 第二,环境绩效越好的企业所发行的股票,其气候变化关注贝塔对未来超额回报的负向效应将更加明显. 第三,投资者的风险对冲需求是气候变化关注影响股票超额收益的重要机制,高气候变化关注贝塔股票的高需求主要受到投资者对企业现金流预期的变化、ESG偏好以及机构持股比例的驱动.

    Abstract:

    The intensification of global climate change has attracted increasing attention in recent years. This paper first develops a theoretical model by embedding climate change attention within the consumption-based capital asset pricing framework to explore the relationship between investors’ climate change attention and expected stock return. Using Baidu Information and Baidu Index of climate change related keywords to measure investors’ climate change attention, and then empirically examines the model predictions and mechanisms by using trading data of A-share listed firms in China. The findings are as follows. First, stocks with higher climate change attention beta earn lower future excess returns, and this negative relationship is time-varying, it is more pronounced during periods of high climate change attention. Second, the negative effect will stronger when the stocks of issuers with better environmental performance. Third, investors’ intertemporal hedging demand is an important mechanism for climate change attention affects stock returns, and the high demand for higher climate change attention beta stocks are mainly driven by the changes in investors’ expectation of corporate cash flows, ESG preferences, and institutional shareholding ratios.

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历史
  • 收稿日期:2022-10-28
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-31
  • 录用日期:2025-01-21
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