地缘政治风险视角下全球价值链脆弱性测度及模拟分析
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1.湖南大学经济与贸易学院;2.湖南财政经济学院财政金融学院

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Global value chain vulnerability measurement and simulation analysis from the geopolitical risk perspective
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1.School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University;2.School of Finance and Economics, Hunan University of Finance and Economics

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    摘要:

    近些年频发的地缘政治冲突及潜在的价值观同盟体系建设正在破坏高效运行、紧密依存的全球价值链分工网络。本文定义了全球价值链脆弱性概念,构建了经济体(部门)层面的全球价值链脆弱性指标,探究了当前地缘政治风险对各经济体(部门)全球价值链脆弱性的放大作用。实证研究发现,考虑地缘政治风险后,经济体参与全球价值链的脆弱性表现出不同程度的放大,其中作用于美国与部分对美依赖较高的经济体的“放大效应”更为明显。在关键部门层面,对于计算机、电子和光学设备制造部门,美国、德国、英国等价值链上重要的供应枢纽国家的脆弱性相对更低;在基础药物产品与药物制剂制造业部门,中国的脆弱性全球最低,但对地缘政治风险表现更为敏感。针对美日印澳“四国联盟机制”的反事实模拟分析表明,成员国之间政治风险不确定性的消除,在提升成员国参与全球价值链的安全性方面作用十分有限;若四国进一步升级为一致的对华紧张关系,反而会加剧美国、日本与澳大利亚的价值链脆弱性。

    Abstract:

    The frequent geopolitical conflicts in recent years and potential value alliance system construction are undermining the efficient functioning and closely dependent global value chain division of labor network. This paper innovatively defines the concept of global value chain vulnerability, constructs the vulnerability index at the economic (sectoral) level and the relative vulnerability indicator at the bilateral level, and explores the amplifying effect of current geopolitical risks on the vulnerability of economies (sectors) in the global value chain. Empirical results have found that the introduction of geopolitical risk with trading partners magnifies an economy"s vulnerability to varying degrees, with a more pronounced "amplification effect" on the United States and some economies that are more dependent on the United States. At the key sector level, for the computer, electronic and optical product manufacturing sector, countries that are important supply hubs along the global value chain, such as the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom, are relatively less vulnerable; for the basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations sector, China shows the lowest vulnerability in the world but is more sensitive to geopolitical risk. The counterfactual simulation analysis of the "US-Japan-India-Australia alliance" shows that the elimination of political uncertainty among member states has a very limited role in improving the security of member states" participation in global value chain; if the four-nation alliance escalates to a consistent relationship with China, it will increase the vulnerability of the United States, Japan and Australia.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-07-14
  • 最后修改日期:2024-07-06
  • 录用日期:2024-11-09
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