基于前瞻信息的广义风险与收益率预测
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Customer allowance for doubtful accounts and the duration of supply chain relationship
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    摘要:

    当预期资产价格可能会下跌时,投资者可以交易期权来对冲风险,因此期权价格中隐含未来市场风险的前瞻信息,理论上基于这部分信息预测未来可提高预测的准确性和前瞻性.本文综合运用有限差分、约束最小二乘和广义极值分布等技术构建一种非参数方法,提取我国上证50ETF期权中隐含的前瞻性分布信息,以测算我国股票市场的广义风险.实证结果发现:隐含广义风险指标对未来风险调整收益具有显著预测能力,在其它预测因子基础上加入该指标可以显著改进风险调整收益的样本外预测精度;隐含广义风险指标还能反映收益率的高阶矩和尾部信息,进而能预测未来收益率发生下跳风险的概率.以上结论在控制一系列其它风险因子及不同样本区间和不同预测窗口下是稳健的,说明基于前瞻信息的广义风险指标含有其它风险因子所不具备的额外预测信息.本研究为投资者和监管部门防范化解金融市场风险提供新的前瞻性管理工具和手段.

    Abstract:

    Supply chain stability is an important component of national economic security. As a common item in supply chain purchase and sale transactions, the allowance for doubtful accounts is particularly noteworthy for its potential impact on the duration of supply chain relationships. The paper examines the impact of customer allowance for doubtful accounts on the duration of supply chain relationships, using a research sample of Ashare listed companies on Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges from 2008 to 2022. The study finds that customer allowance for doubtful accounts is significantly negatively related to the duration of the supply chain relationship. Mechanism tests indicate that customer allowance for doubtful accounts increases firms’finance, credit, and market risks through the supply chain risk contagion effect, prompting firms to interrupt current supply chain relationships due to riskaversion motivations. Further analysis shows that the negative impact of customer allowance for doubtful accounts is more significant in samples with lower prudence in allowance for doubtful accounts, higher downstream discourse power of suppliers, lower upstream discourse power of customers, and lower supply chain relationship survivability. Economic policy uncertainty exacerbates the negative impact of customer allowance for doubtful accounts on the duration of supply chain relationships, while a good business environment can weaken this adverse effect. The paper enriches the research related to the supply chain risk contagion effect and the duration of supply chain relationships from the perspective of customer allowance for doubtful accounts, and also has policy implications for enhancing supply chain resilience and risk resistance, as well as maintaining supply chain security and stability.

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黄金波,尤亦玲,李仲飞.基于前瞻信息的广义风险与收益率预测[J].管理科学学报,2024,(3):91~111

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-18
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