市场情绪与基金投资策略:迎合还是修正?
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Twopillar regulation and bank risktaking: Micro mechanisms and crosssectionalandtime heterogeneity
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    摘要:

    基金投资策略选择是学术界、监管者和市场参与者共同关注的焦点.本文根据行为资产定价理论将基金投资策略量化为组合收益的市场情绪敏感度,首次在微观层面对其按照市场状态分类界定为迎合情绪策略与修正情绪策略,通过理论模型和实证检验探究基金的投资策略选择对其流量、风险和经理努力程度产生的系统影响,从行为委托代理视角剖析基金业绩的影响机制.研究发现:基金采取迎合策略时,对投资者特别是个体投资者更有吸引力,但会对投资者利益造成隐性侵害,表现为基金未来的风险增大、收益降低,且基金经理在无需付出更多努力的情况下可获得更高报酬.进一步分析表明,基金经理为取悦投资者的消极放任行为是其业绩表现不佳的重要原因;基金采取修正策略时,产生的系列影响则完全相反.本研究为中小投资者的投资实践、基金治理与监管,及解释基金市场异象提供了新的思路与启示.

    Abstract:

    Twopillar policies constitute a crucial part of the postcrisis financial stabilization framework. As regards ameliorating the twopillar regulatory framework and mitigating banking sector risks, it is crucial to examine the effect of twopillar policies on bank risktaking in a systematical way. Hence, this paper analyzes the transmission mechanism between the twopillar policies and bank risktaking from a micro perspective. Based on this, an empirical study is conducted using banklevel panel data from 262 commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2020, to test the effects. The findings are as follows: Contractionary monetary policy and macroprudential regulation both exert a marginal reducing effect on bank risktaking, while loose monetary policy exerts a risk spillover effect on banks, which can be mitigated by macroprudential regulation. Mechanism analysis shows that macroprudential regulation mitigates the spillover effect of monetary policy by alleviating the negative impact of lowinterest rate monetary policy on bank charter value and by attenuating the procyclical adjustment of bank leverage, thereby performing a coordinated riskabating effect. In terms of crosssectional dimension, interbank connection exerts an asymmetric influence on the coordination effect of twopillar policies on bank risktaking. In a monetaryeasing environment, an increase in the interbank connection level weakens the mitigating effect of macroprudential regulation on the risk spillover generated by loose monetary policy. In a monetarytightening environment, an increase in interbank connection level worsens the weakening effect of macroprudential regulation on the riskreducing effect of contractionary monetary policy. Besides, twopillar policies generate a better coordinated riskabating effect on larger banks or those with a lower proportion of noninterest rate revenue. In terms of the time dimension, interest rate marketization strengthens the coordinated riskabating effect of twopillar policies, while increased monetary policy uncertainty weakens that effect.

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王健,易尚昆,蒋忠中,秦绪伟.市场情绪与基金投资策略:迎合还是修正?[J].管理科学学报,2024,(3):112~132

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-04-18
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