公共卫生事件下我国风险与避险资产溢出效应——基于收益与风险分析的视角
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Spillover effects of risk and hedging assets in China under public health events: A perspective based on return and risk analysis
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    摘要:

    始于2019年末的重大公共卫生事件对我国实体经济和各类资产市场带来了前所未有的冲击,也引发了对我国各类资产间溢出效应的广泛讨论.本研究利用基于时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型的动态溢出指数框架及其频域扩展,探讨了该事件影响下我国股市这一风险资产市场与四种潜在避险资产(国债、外汇、黄金和原油)市场间收益和波动溢出的时域和频域特征.实证结果表明:首先,在该事件冲击下,我国资产系统的总收益和总波动溢出指数及其三个频域成分都出现了前所未有的增加;其次,资产收益溢出的短期成分最大,而波动溢出则以长期成分为主;第三,系统的主要收益和波动溢出来源会因该事件的国内外发展趋势的变化而发生改变,且一些资产所扮演的角色在该事件期间产生了明显的周期性转变.具体来说,在收益溢出方面,国债和原油分别是中期和后期除股票以外的净收益的溢出来源,且在该事件中期,黄金虽然是短期收益溢出的净接收者,却是中长期收益溢出的净传递者.在波动溢出方面,股票和国债是严重时期和舒缓时期除原油以外的额外波动溢出来源,且此时股票和原油虽然是长期净波动溢出来源,却是中短期波动溢出的净接受者.随着该事件逐渐可控,原油仍是波动溢出的净传递者,而国债则成为了中短期波动溢出的净传递者和长期波动溢出的净接收者.最后,在严重时期,国债,外汇和黄金市场是股票市场风险较好的避风港,同时,持有原油资产空头也可以较好地对冲股票市场风险.

    Abstract:

    The major public health event that began at the end of 2019 has brought unprecedented shocks to China’s real economy and various asset markets,and has triggered extensive discussions on the spillover effects among various assets in China. This paper,using time-varying parametric vector autoregressive ( TVPVAR) model based dynamic spillover index framework and its frequency-domain extensions,explores the timedomain and frequency-domain characteristics of return and volatility spillovers among a risky asset market ( China’s stock market) and four potential hedging assets ( government bond,foreign exchange,gold and crude oil) under the impact of major public health event. The empirical results show that,firstly,both the total return and volatility spillover index of the asset system in China as well as their three frequency-domain components show an unprecedented increase under the impact of major public health event; Secondly,the short-term component of asset return spillovers is the largest,while the volatility spillovers are dominated by the long-term component; Thirdly,the main sources of return and volatility spillovers will change due to changes in domestic and international development trends of the major public health event,and the roles played by some assets will change significantly during the event. To be specific,in terms of return spillover,bond and crude oil are sources of net return spillover in addition to stock during the medium and late stages of the event,respectively. In addition,although gold is a net receiver of short-term return spillover,it is a net transmitter of medium-and long-term return spillover. In terms of volatility spillover,stock and bond are additional sources of volatility spillover in addition to crude oil during the severe and palliative periods of the event. At this time, although stock and crude oil are the sources of long-term volatility spillover,they are the net receiver of shortand medium-term volatility spillover. As the event becomes manageable,crude oil is still the net transmitter of volatility spillover,while bond becomes the net transmitter of short-and medium-term volatility spillover and the net receiver of long-term volatility spillover. Finally,Government bond,foreign currency and gold are better safe-havens in severe period of major public health event,while holding a short position in crude oil canalso help to hedge against stock market risk.

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魏宇,李霞飞,梁超.公共卫生事件下我国风险与避险资产溢出效应——基于收益与风险分析的视角[J].管理科学学报,2024,(6):127~148

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-07-28
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