反倾销嵌入全球生产网络的级联效应仿真研究
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Simulation of the cascading effect of anti-dumping embedded in global production network
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    摘要:

    本研究将复杂网络理论应用于投入产出模型并将其引入宏观经济学生产函数理论模型,对反倾销嵌入全球生产网络的内在机理与其产生的级联效应展开探讨与仿真模拟分析.研究发现:基于网络视角与投入产出关系,反倾销冲击对中间产品的贸易抑制作用要明显大于最终产品,多次跨境的中间品将会累积增加反倾销带来的贸易成本;反倾销带来的行业引致需求量降低与出口贸易受到抑制以及行业与国家总产出水平的波动等影响,会沿着以中间品贸易为基础的全球生产网络中的投入产出关系进行传播,从而产生显著的级联效应,并且该效应会随着不同国家-部门节点之间的联系紧密程度(贸易量)的降低而衰减;反倾销产生的级联效应不仅涉及全球生产网络中直接关联节点即涉案国(调查国与被调查国)的国内上下游行业,而且波及间接关联节点即非涉案国的第三方国家和地区,进而影响全球多边贸易发展,同时,级联效应也阻碍了网络节点参与全球价值链生产分工,导致了节点隶属国(地区)的国内价值链被拉长;反倾销嵌入全球生产网络后,会通过整个生产网络产生总量波动效应,从而改变全球生产网络的拓扑结构,即全球生产网络变的相对稀疏、节点间网络距离拉长等.

    Abstract:

    By applying the complex network theory to the input-output model and introducing it into the macroeconomic production function theoretical model, this paper investigates and simulates the internal mechanism of anti-dumping embedded in the global production network and its cascading effect. The analysis results reveal that from the network perspective, the effect of anti-dumping shocks on intermediate products is significantly greater than that on final products, and the intermediate products that cross borders multiple times will cumulatively increase the trade cost caused by anti-dumping. The effects caused by anti-dumping, including lower induced demand, suppressed export trade, and fluctuations in aggregate output levels across industries and countries, will spread along the input-output relationships in the global production networks. This results in a significant cascading effect that decay with the connection (trade volume) between different country-sector nodes. The cascading effect of anti-dumping not only involves the direct connection nodes, such as the domestic upstream and downstream industries of the countries involved in the anti-dumping case of the global production network, but also affects the indirect connection nodes, such as the third-party countries and regions through the production network, thereby affecting the development of global multilateral trade. The cascading effect also prevents network nodes from participating in the division of production in the global value chain, resulting in the extension of the domestic value chain of the country (region) to which the node belongs. After the anti-dumping measures are embedded in the global production network, they generate a total fluctuation effect through the entire production network, thereby changing the topological structure of the global production network. In other words, the global production network becomes relatively sparse, and the network distance between nodes becomes longer.

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乔小勇,吴晓雪,薛蕊,Claude Baron,沈煌南,赵乔.反倾销嵌入全球生产网络的级联效应仿真研究[J].管理科学学报,2024,(8):1~22

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  • 在线发布日期: 2024-10-16
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