Abstract:Discrete data stream has the characteristics of high uncertainty, changeable evolution trend and multiextremum,which makes it difficult to achieve accurate and realtime forecasting.Therefore, a new forecasting method based on the online segmentation algorithm of discrete data stream is proposed.The proposed method combines the shortterm trend extraction and online adaptive detection of segmentation points.Before forecasting, the shortterm trend is obtained based on the nonparametric regression model and the improved trend extraction algorithm, then the shortterm trend of the forecasted day is mined and analyzed for later online forecasting.In the online forecasting stage, the adaptive detection of segmentation points based on hypothesis testing is applied to the online data stream, which can solve the problem of determining segmentation points.The forecasting model at the segmentation point is then modified based on the shortterm trends, which reduces the dependence of the forecasting model on the buffered data.Finally, numerical results illustrate the validity and feasibility of the proposed method.