涨跌停信息与中国股市预测:图像识别的新视角
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(面上项目,重点项目,重大项目)


Price Limit Information and Stock Market Prediction in China: A New Perspective Through Image Recognition
Author:
Affiliation:

Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science,Chinese Academy of Sciences

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    涨跌停制度作为中国A股市场的特色交易制度,对市场价格发现与投资者行为有着重要影响。为探索并利用这一信息,本文从市场情绪放大与价格反转效应两大理论机制处罚,运用图像识别技术,基于2010年以来5353家A股成交量、价格及涨跌停收盘状态数据绘制趋势图,创新性地提出涨跌停状态线和涨跌停提示点卷积神经网络(LCNN和PCNN)两类方法。通过将股票的量价数据与涨跌停收盘状态可视化为包含涨跌停状态线或涨跌停提示点的趋势图,构建相应的卷积神经网络进行预测。实证结果表明,相较于传统因子模型和结构化数据方法,融入涨跌停图像信息的模型在预测精度与投资组合收益方面具有显著优势,特别是在市场非理性程度较高(如高换手率、高波动率)的股票中优势更为明显。研究不仅验证了将关键市场制度信息“可视化”并用于量化预测的独特价值,也为中国特色市场机制下的涨跌停、融券制度优化提供了经验证据。研究结果有益于支持促进我国资本市场公平性和定价效率提升,进而推进中国金融市场长期高质量发展。

    Abstract:

    As a unique trading rule in China's A-share market, the price-limit system significantly influences price discovery and investor behavior. To explore and leverage this information, motivated by the theoretical mechanisms of market sentiment amplification and price reversal effects, we employ image recognition techniques. We innovatively propose two methods: the Line Convolutional Neural Network (LCNN) and the Point Convolutional Neural Network (PCNN). These methods visualize stock data—including trading volume, prices, and closing limit status from 5,353 A-shares since 2010—into trend charts that explicitly incorporate either price-limit state lines or prompt points for prediction. Empirical results demonstrate that, compared to traditional factor models and methods using structured data, our models incorporating visualized price-limit information exhibit significant advantages in both prediction accuracy and portfolio returns. The predictive performance is stronger when stocks exhibit characteristics such as high turnover, high volatility, high transaction friction, low beta, and irrational market participants. This research validates the unique value of "visualizing" key institutional information for quantitative prediction and provides empirical evidence for optimizing China's distinctive market regulations, such as its price-limit and short-selling systems, ultimately promoting fairer pricing, market efficiency, and sustainable development in the Chinese financial market.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-11-01
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-21
  • 录用日期:2026-02-15
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期:
您是第位访问者
管理科学学报 ® 2026 版权所有
通讯地址:天津市南开区卫津路92号天津大学第25教学楼A座908室 邮编:300072
联系电话/传真:022-27403197 电子信箱:jmsc@tju.edu.cn