高温冲击下的企业信用违约与宏观经济波动
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Corporate credit defaults and macroeconomic fluctuations under the impact of high temperatures
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    摘要:

    随着“全球沸腾时代”的到来,如何准确剖析极端气温对我国经济金融系统的冲击影响,已成为现阶段亟待研究的重要议题.为了克服我国经纬度跨越大、气温测算难度高的局限,通过最小化距离匹配中国上市公司与0.5°×0.5°经纬度网格节点的距离,准确测算各公司极端温度的暴露天数,构建一级、二级、三级极端高温指标.在此基础上,结合地理分区、行业分类等我国自然环境与经济社会的异质性特征,充分厘清高温暴露对企业违约风险的作用机制,并探究其对企业收入端与费用端的长期影响.此外,进一步深入探究极端高温引发的宏观经济波动,就各级高温对我国主要城市GDP、通货膨胀率等宏观变量的冲击展开全面的定量分析.最后,提出了若干政策建议,以期妥善应对全球气候变化、构建防范化解气候金融风险的长效机制,为推动经济社会可持续发展提供参考依据.

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    With the arrival of the era of global boiling, accurately analyzing the impact of extreme temperatures on China’s economic and financial system has become an essential issue. To address the challenges in temperature measurement posed by China’s vast diversity, this paper employs a distance minimization approach to match Chinese publicly listed companies with 0.5°×0.5° latitude and longitude grid nodes. This methodology facilitates the precise calculation of the number of days each company is exposed to extreme temperatures, leading to the establishment of first, second, and third-tier extreme heat indicators.On this basis, spatial heterogeneity characteristics of China’s natural environment and economic society, such as geographical zoning and industry classification, are considered to clarify the mechanism of the impact of high temperature exposure on corporate default risk. Simultaneously, this paper investigates the long-term effects of extreme heat on both revenue and expenses.Furthermore, an in-depth investigation into the macroeconomic fluctuations induced by extreme high temperatures is conducted, providing a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the impact of varying heat levels on key macroeconomic variables, such as GDP and inflation rates, in major cities across China.Finally, several policy recommendations are suggested to effectively address global climate change and establish a long-term mechanism for mitigating climate financial risks, thereby offering guidance for promoting sustainable economic and social development.

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陈雨恬,杨子晖,温雪莲.高温冲击下的企业信用违约与宏观经济波动[J].管理科学学报,2025,(1):100~118

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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-14
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