优胜劣汰还是逆向选择——基于上市公司质量与股价表现关联的研究
作者:

Survival of the fittest or fattest: The relationship between quality of listed firms and performance of stock price
  • 摘要
  • | |
  • 访问统计
  • | |
  • 相似文献
  • | | |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    构建优胜劣汰的高质量资本市场是金融服务实体经济的关键.本文使用90多个财务特征指标等高维大数据和多种机器学习与计量方法提取基本面信息,对上市公司质量进行评价并构建基本面质量综合指数,研究基本面质量与股价表现的关联关系.研究发现,上市公司基本面质量对股价表现具有显著为正的预测能力.其中,由偏最小二乘法构建的基本面质量指数对股票横截面收益的预测能力最强,年化收益近38%,且CAPM、三因子和五因子模型对此不能解释.本文还从行为金融和经济周期等视角探索公司基本面质量对股票价格的影响机制,发现市场情绪、有限套利、公司投资等决策和经济周期都有助于理解上市公司质量溢价现象.本文研究表明,我国股票市场定价效率已稳步提高,进入了“优胜劣汰”和价值投资阶段.

    Abstract:

    Building a high-quality capital market with survival of the fittest is the key for finance to serve the real economy and the supply-side reform. This study extracts fundamental information from a high-dimensional big dataset of over 90 accounting indicators by means of several approaches in machine learning and econometrics, evaluates the quality of listed firms with an aggregate fundamental index, and investigates the correlation between the index and the performance of stock price. Results show that the quality index can significantly and positively predict stock returns. Among them, the partial-least-squares-based measurement has the strongest predicting power, with an annualized return of approximately 38〖WTXT〗%〖WTBZ〗, which cannot be explained away by CAPM, three-factor or five factor models. Furthermore, this paper explores the impact mechanism from the perspective of behavioral finance and macroeconomic cycle, and finds that market sentiment, limits to arbitrage, firm policy, and macro business cycle can help dissect the quality premium among listed firms. Our study suggests that the pricing efficiency in Chinese stock market has steadily improved, and it has stepped into the stage of survival of the fittest and value investment.

    参考文献
    引证文献
    网友评论
    网友评论
    分享到微博
    发 布
引用本文

靳馥境,姜富伟,唐国豪.优胜劣汰还是逆向选择——基于上市公司质量与股价表现关联的研究[J].管理科学学报,2025,(2):154~170

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:288
  • 下载次数: 202
  • HTML阅读次数: 0
  • 引用次数: 0
历史
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-26
您是第4142954位访问者
管理科学学报 ® 2025 版权所有
通讯地址:天津市南开区卫津路92号天津大学第25教学楼A座908室 邮编:300072
联系电话/传真:022-27403197 电子信箱:jmsc@tju.edu.cn