全球价值链脆弱性的测度与模拟分析——基于地缘政治风险视角
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Global value chain vulnerability measurement and simulation: A geopolitical risk perspective
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    摘要:

    近些年频发的地缘政治冲突及潜在的价值观同盟体系建设正在破坏高效运行、紧密依存的全球价值链分工网络.本研究定义了全球价值链脆弱性概念,构建了经济体(部门)层面的全球价值链脆弱性指标,探究了地缘政治风险对各经济体(部门)的全球价值链脆弱性的放大作用.实证研究发现,考虑地缘政治风险后,经济体参与全球价值链的脆弱性表现出不同程度的放大,其中作用于美国与部分对美依赖较高的经济体的“放大效应”更为明显.在关键部门层面,对于计算机、电子和光学设备制造业,美国、德国、英国等价值链上重要的供应枢纽国家的脆弱性相对更低;对于基础药物产品与药物制剂制造业,中国的脆弱性全球最低,但对地缘政治风险表现更为敏感.针对美日印澳“四国联盟机制”的情景模拟分析表明,该联盟内部地缘政治风险的消除,在提升成员国参与全球价值链的安全性上作用十分有限;若四国进一步升级为一致的对华紧张关系,反而会加剧美国、日本与澳大利亚的价值链脆弱性.

    Abstract:

    In recent years, frequent geopolitical conflicts and the potential formation of alliances based on shared values have undermined the efficiently functioning, tightly interdependent network of global value chains (GVCs). This study proposes a novel conceptual framework for assessing GVC vulnerability, develops composite metrics to quantify GVC vulnerability at the economy and sector levels, and systematically investigates how current geopolitical risks amplify GVC vulnerabilities across economies and sectors. The empirical results indicate that accounting for geopolitical risks leads to increases in the vulnerabilities of economies participating in GVCs, to varying degrees. The amplification effect is particularly pronounced for the United States and economies with high GVC dependency on the U.S. At the key sector level: in the computer, electronic, and optical equipment manufacturing sector, major supply-hub countries in the value chain such as the U.S., Germany, and the U.K. exhibit relatively low vulnerability; in the basic pharmaceutical products and drug formulations manufacturing sector, China has the lowest vulnerability globally, though it is more sensitive to geopolitical risks. A scenario simulation analysis of the U.S.-Japan-India-Australia Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) alliance indicates that eliminating geopolitical risks among member states has a very limited effect on enhancing the security of their participation in GVCs. If the Quad further escalates into consistent geopolitical tensions with China, it will instead exacerbate the GVC vulnerability of the U.S., Japan, and Australia.

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肖皓,贾真,毕慧敏,赖明勇.全球价值链脆弱性的测度与模拟分析——基于地缘政治风险视角[J].管理科学学报,2025,(11):15~27

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-08
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