得偿所愿还是南辕北辙:贸易参与、市场拥挤与就业质量提升
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Policy realization or paradoxical outcomes: Trade participation, market crowding, and employment quality improvement
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    摘要:

    鼓励更多企业参与国际贸易,能否提升城市的就业质量?本文从理论和实证两个层面回答了这个问题.在引入市场拥挤概念和系统阐释参与国际贸易影响劳动力市场机制的基础上,以中国设立跨境电子商务综合试验区为准自然实验,本文利用交错双重差分模型评估了更多企业参与国际贸易对就业质量的影响.研究发现,更多企业从事国际贸易虽然扩大了城市就业规模,但是由于市场拥挤效应存在,无法提高城市在岗职工平均工资,且无法实现就业产业结构优化.这一结论表明长期来看,贸易参与主体规模扩大无法有效提升就业质量,不应把提升就业质量的希望完全寄托在企业从事国际贸易上.为了保障企业维持稳定的创造就业和提供岗位待遇的能力,不仅应该有鼓励企业参与国际贸易的政策,还应该建立企业退出国际市场的有效机制.

    Abstract:

    This paper provides both a theoretical and an empirical framework for addressing the question of whether encouraging more firms to engage in international trade may enhance urban employment quality.Theoretically, the concept of market crowding is introduced and the mechanism by which participation in international trade influences the labor market quality is outlined.Empirically, the staggered DID model is applied to estimate the impact of the establishment of China’scross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones as a quasi-natural experiment.Results show that even though the number of firms engaged in international trade expanded urban employment, the market crowding effect does not result in significant improvement in the average wage of urban on-the-job workers, and the industrial structure of employment is not optimized.This finding suggests that, in the long run, the expansion of the scale of trade participants cannot effectively improve the quality of employment and improving employment quality should not be fully expected from firms’international commerce.In order to maintain firms’continued ability to create jobs and offer work benefits, it is necessary not only to encourage firms’participation in international trade, but also to establish an effective mechanism for firms to exit the global market.

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陈昊,赵子薇,孟怡珺.得偿所愿还是南辕北辙:贸易参与、市场拥挤与就业质量提升[J].管理科学学报,2025,(12):46~59

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-28
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