突发公共卫生事件与消费行为变化的可持续性
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Public health emergencies and the sustainability of changes in consumer behavior
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    摘要:

    在公共卫生事件发生期间,居民的消费行为会发生显著的变化;但这种行为改变是否会持续、行为改变在不同人群之间有无差异,以及改变背后的机理仍需科学分析与探索.本文利用个体层面的本地生活消费数据,探究了公共卫生事件对居民到家/到店消费比例的长期影响、该影响在不同群体间的差异性及影响机制.本文提出公共卫生事件会通过影响居民的新信息获取、疾病避免需求、社交需求而长期改变居民的本地生活消费行为.实证结果表明,居民在后公共卫生事件时期的到家消费金额占比,相较公共卫生事件发生前平均提升了3%,并且这种提升在事件发生前偏好到店消费的群体中表现更为显著.进一步的实证分析也验证了这一结果背后机制的合理性.本研究有助于政府和零售企业了解重大突发公共卫生事件对居民本地消费行为的长期影响,并为后公共卫生事件时期零售企业到家模式的发展提供参考.

    Abstract:

    Residents’consumption behavior has changed significantly during public health emergencies. However, whether the altered pattern of behavior persists over time, whether the degree of change differs among different population groups, and the underlying mechanisms behind the change still need scientific analysis and exploration. This article utilizes individual-level local consumption data to explore the long-term impact of public health emergencies on the proportion of consumers’online grocery shopping, the heterogeneity of this impact among different groups, as well as the underlying mechanisms. This article proposes that public health emergencies will sustainably change residents’local consumption behavior through three mechanisms: Information acquisition, disease avoidance, and social demand improvement. The empirical results show that in the post-period, the proportion of residents’online grocery shopping has increased by an average of 3% compared to the pre-period. This increase is more pronounced among groups who previously preferred in-store consumption. Further empirical analysis also verifies the mechanisms behind these results. This research helps the government and retail companies understand the long-term impact of public health emergencies on residents’local consumption behavior and provides insights into the development of online grocery shopping services in the post-period.

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杨卉,卢向华,谢锐.突发公共卫生事件与消费行为变化的可持续性[J].管理科学学报,2025,(12):171~184

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-01-28
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