“好”“坏”波动与系统性风险预测——基于日内高频金融数据的新视角
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Good volatility, bad volatility, and systemic risk forecasting: From the new perspective of intraday highfrequency financial data
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    摘要:

    党的二十大报告明确提出,要“加强和完善现代金融监管,强化金融稳定保障体系”.尽管近些年来全球资本市场剧烈波动,金融体系脆弱性显著增加,然而结合“好”“坏”波动这一崭新视角来预测系统性风险的文献仍然较少,且过往研究大多基于日度、周度、月度等低频金融数据进行分析,而忽略金融波动日内快速演变的特征.有鉴于此,在全面梳理“好”“坏”波动相关指标的基础上,本文利用股市日内高频收益率数据,测算我国金融市场“好”“坏”波动,考察“好”“坏”波动与股票收益率、系统性风险间的潜在关系.接着,结合相对重要性分析技术,考察不同“好”“坏”波动指标对系统性风险的解释力度,并分析“好”“坏”波动对不同行业系统性风险的作用影响.本文指出,若不对金融波动的“好”与“坏”这一特征加以区分,可能会导致对未来系统性风险的错误预判.最后,本文提出若干政策建议,以期为我国主动防范化解系统性风险、牢筑金融风险“防火墙”提供参考依据.

    Abstract:

    The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China has clearly stated that it is necessary to improve modern financial supervision and strengthen the financial stability guarantee system. Despite the dramatic volatility of global capital markets in recent years and the increasing fragility of the financial system, there is still little literature that combines the new perspective of good and bad volatility to predict systemic risk. Most previous studies rely on lowfrequency financial data, such as daily, weekly, or monthly data, ignoring the rapid intraday evolution of financial volatility. In view of these facts, based on a systematic and comprehensive summary of existing good and bad volatility indicators, this paper uses intraday highfrequency yield data from China’s stock market to measure the good and bad volatility related indicators and investigates the potential relationship between good and bad volatility, stock returns, and systemic risk. Then, dominance analysis is used to investigate the contribution of different good and bad volatility indicators to China’s systemic risk and to further explore the good and bad volatility drivers of systemic risk in different industries. Finally, this paper further points out that if we do not distinguish the intrinsic nature of financial market volatility, it may lead to misjudgment of future systemic risk exposure. On this basis, this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions to provide an important reference for China to take the initiative to prevent and resolve systemic risks and build a financial risk firewall.

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杨子晖,戴志颖,李东承.“好”“坏”波动与系统性风险预测——基于日内高频金融数据的新视角[J].管理科学学报,2026,(1):1~17

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-10
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