基于信噪比改进预测的金融建模方法与实证研究
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Financial modeling and empirical methods based on an improved SignaltoNoise Ratio for prediction
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    摘要:

    在经典的线性回归模型基础上,考虑拟合模型参数估计的随机性因素后,应该对经典的线性回归模型给予一定的修正才能更好地预测未来.因此,本文提出基于信息噪声比修正的L乘子模型,它架起拟合最优模型与预测最优模型的关系.文中给出了最优L乘子的显式解,并在考虑预测变量存在自相关性的情况下,给出了L的改进表达式.然后,本文探讨了L乘子的两种估计方法.实证上,通过将L乘子模型应用于股票收益率的预测问题验证了本文理论有效性.结果表明:1)相较于基准的线性回归模型,L乘子模型具有更高的预测精度;2)噪声较高、历史样本量较小或预测变量的信息含量较低时,L乘子的修正力度较大,带来的预测改进效果越明显;3)对于均值-方差效用的投资者而言,这种预测性能的改进可以为其带来投资绩效提升.这些结论也满足一系列的稳健性检验.

    Abstract:

    Considering the random factors involved in estimating modelfitting parameters, the classical linear regression model should be adjusted to improve its predictive performance. Therefore, this paper proposes an Lmultiplier model based on SignaltoNoise Ratio adjustment, which links the optimally fitted model to the best predictive model. The paper provides an explicit solution for the optimal Lmultiplier, and considering the presence of autocorrelation in the predictive variables, presents an improved expression for L. Subsequently, this paper discusses two estimation methods for the Lmultiplier and compares their respective advantages and disadvantages. Empirically, the theoretical validity of the Lmultiplier model has been confirmed by applying the modified Lmultiplier model to the problem of predicting stock returns. The results show that: 1)Compared to the baseline linear regression model, the model modified with the Lmultiplier has higher predictive accuracy; 2)When the noise is higher, the historical sample size is smaller, or the information content of the predictive variable is lower, the adjustment intensity of the Lmultiplier is greater, resulting in a more pronounced improvement in prediction; 3)For investors with meanvariance utility, this improvement in predictive performance can lead to an enhancement in investment returns. These findings also withstand a series of robust tests.

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林艳艳,朱顺伟,吴冲锋.基于信噪比改进预测的金融建模方法与实证研究[J].管理科学学报,2026,(1):18~38

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-10
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