Abstract:Considering the random factors involved in estimating modelfitting parameters, the classical linear regression model should be adjusted to improve its predictive performance. Therefore, this paper proposes an Lmultiplier model based on SignaltoNoise Ratio adjustment, which links the optimally fitted model to the best predictive model. The paper provides an explicit solution for the optimal Lmultiplier, and considering the presence of autocorrelation in the predictive variables, presents an improved expression for L. Subsequently, this paper discusses two estimation methods for the Lmultiplier and compares their respective advantages and disadvantages. Empirically, the theoretical validity of the Lmultiplier model has been confirmed by applying the modified Lmultiplier model to the problem of predicting stock returns. The results show that: 1)Compared to the baseline linear regression model, the model modified with the Lmultiplier has higher predictive accuracy; 2)When the noise is higher, the historical sample size is smaller, or the information content of the predictive variable is lower, the adjustment intensity of the Lmultiplier is greater, resulting in a more pronounced improvement in prediction; 3)For investors with meanvariance utility, this improvement in predictive performance can lead to an enhancement in investment returns. These findings also withstand a series of robust tests.