资本市场开放、投资者非理性行为与资本市场效率
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Stock market liberalization, investor irrational behavior, and stock marketefficiency
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    摘要:

    资本市场开放是我国高水平开放的重要内容,对于优化投资者结构、提升市场效率具有重要意义.本文基于异质性主体思想构建开放状态下的资产定价模型,探讨“沪港通”的实施对投资者非理性行为及市场效率的影响.研究结果表明,资本市场开放对两类代表性投资者行为的影响存在差异.“沪港通”的实施并不会对投资者的主观随机行为产生明显作用.相比之下,“沪港通”的实施不仅会直接降低投资者羊群效应的总体水平,也将强化宏观经济变量对羊群效应的影响,使羊群效应在人民币升值和Libor上行时得以减弱.本文综合考虑理性、非理性因素构建本地市场效率指标,发现“沪港通”的实施将增强本地市场基本面对股价变化的驱动力、提升本地市场效率.本文的结果有助于理解资本市场开放对市场主体行为的影响,为进一步扩大资本市场开放提供经验依据.

    Abstract:

    Stock market liberalization plays an essential role in China’s highlevel opening by optimizing the investor structure and improving market efficiency. Based on the heterogeneous agents model in the open economy, this paper explores the impact of the “ShanghaiHong Kong Stock Connect” program on irrational investor behavior and market efficiency. It is discovered that stock market liberalization influences the two representative irrational behaviors differently. The implementation of the “ShanghaiHong Kong Stock Connect” program has an insignificant impact on autonomous switching behavior but directly reduces herding. After the implementation of the “ShanghaiHong Kong Stock Connect” program, herding decreases when the RMB appreciates and when the Libor increases. This paper develops a market efficiency indicator incorporating both rational and irrational forces. It is found that the implementation of the “ShanghaiHong Kong Stock Connect” program improves the proportion of stock return volatility driven by fundamental force, thus increasing the efficiency of the local market. This paper extends the literature on stock market liberalization’s effect on microentities and provides an empirical basis for further liberalization.

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陈镇喜,李京翰,张维.资本市场开放、投资者非理性行为与资本市场效率[J].管理科学学报,2026,(2):1~20

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-26
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