基于机器学习的公司避税预测研究
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Predicting corporate tax avoidance based on machine learning
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    摘要:

    本文运用梯度提升回归树和随机森林算法同时考察以往文献提及的、能够影响公司避税的6个方面的64个公司内外部特征,对避税程度的预测能力.发现避税工具特征,尤其是捐赠支出、应计盈余、员工人数、研发支出,对避税程度有较强预测能力,而公司外部特征的预测能力普遍较弱.考察关键预测特征与避税程度的关系发现,通常避税程度会随捐赠支出、员工人数的增加而减少,随应计盈余、研发支出的增加而增加;少数情况下避税程度与员工人数正相关,与应计盈余、研发支出相关性不强;捐赠支出与总资产收益率、应计盈余与监事会规模、员工人数与CEO任期、研发支出与机构投资者持股比例存在交互作用.且基于决策树的机器学习算法比线性算法预测能力更强.该结果说明在税收征管和智慧税务建设过程中可以更多关注避税工具特征,制定政策时需注重降低避税工具可得性.

    Abstract:

    This study utilizes Gradient Boosting Regression Trees and Random Forest Agorithms to explore the predictive power of 64 features of six dimensions, which previous studies have identified as determinants of corporate tax avoidance. The results show that features of tax shelters have strong predictive power. Specifically, donation expenditure, total accruals, employment, and R&D expenditure emerge as the most influential predictors. However, external features have limited predictive power. Examining the relationships between key features and tax avoidance,this paper finds that, in general, donation expenditure and employment are negatively related to tax avoidance levels, while total accruals and R&D expenditure are positively associated with tax avoidance levels. However, in a few cases, employment is positively correlated with tax avoidance, and the correlations between tax avoidance and total accruals or R&D expenditure are weak. Interactive effectsexist between donation expenditure and return on total assets, total accruals and supervisory board size,employment and CEO tenure, and R&D expenditure and institutional ownership. Treebased machine learning algorithms have greater predictive power than linear regressions. Our results suggest that more attention should be paid to features of tax shelters in tax collection procedures and the design of intelligent tax systems, and that restricting tax shelters is crucial in policy making.

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彭章,陆瑶,牛美龄,周欣怡.基于机器学习的公司避税预测研究[J].管理科学学报,2026,(2):64~80

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-03-26
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