地方政府债务治理与财政支出效率提升
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Local government debt governance and improvement in fiscal expenditure efficiency
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    摘要:

    为遏制地方隐性债务扩张对金融稳定和经济增长的潜在威胁,《新预算法》在实行全口径预算管理的基础上对地方政府债务管理体制进行了改革.基于该政策冲击在各地级市执行时间的差异,本研究采用多时点双重差分模型系统考察了地方政府债务治理对财政支出效率的影响.结果显示,债务治理显著改善了财政支出效率,且该结论通过了事前趋势检验、修正异质性处理效应以及控制同时期其他政策等稳健性测试.作用机制检验表明,债务治理不仅抑制了地方隐性债务增速,还强化了地方政府对财政支出项目的审计监管力度,但并未影响财政支出结构.进一步分析发现,在事前财政支出效率低、改革力度大和政府间竞争激烈的地区,债务治理对财政支出效率的提升作用更强.此外,债务治理提升了居民对地方政府的信任度和工作满意度,并通过缓解企业融资困境促进了实体经济增长.本研究强调债务治理在降低债务风险的同时有助于提高财政支出效率,进而实现地方财政“低风险”与资金使用“高效率”的并行推进.

    Abstract:

    Through the implementation of full-caliber budget management, the New Budget Law reformed the local government debt management system, aiming to curb the potential threats of local implicit debt expansion to financial stability and economic growth. Leveraging the variation in the implementation timing of this policy shock across prefecture-level cities, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact of local government debt governance on fiscal expenditure efficiency.The results indicate that the reform significantly improves fiscal expenditure efficiency. This finding remains robust after conducting parallel trend analysis, considering modified heterogeneity treatment effects, and controlling for the impact of other contemporaneous policies. Mechanism tests indicate that the reform effectively curbs the growth rate of local implicit debt and strengthens auditing and supervision of fiscal expenditure projects, though it does not affect the structure of fiscal expenditures. Further analysis shows that the policy effect is more pronounced in regionswith lower ex-ante fiscal expenditure efficiency, greater reform intensity, and more intense inter-governmental competition. In addition, the reform enhances residents’ trust and satisfaction with local governments and promotes real economic growth by alleviating corporate financial constraints. Taken together, this papershows that local government debt governance helps reduce fiscal risks while improving expenditure efficiency, thereby achieving the dual objectives of “low risk” in local public finance and “high efficiency” in fund utilization.

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刘贯春,柳杭娟,程飞阳.地方政府债务治理与财政支出效率提升[J].管理科学学报,2026,(3):126~143

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-14
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