基于高维因子模型的A股市场系统性风险研究
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A study of systematic risk in the A-share market based on large-dimensional factor models
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    摘要:

    面临高维特征的挑战以及特设稀疏性假设的诸多弊端,本文参照高维因子统计推断领域的前沿研究进展,从隐性因子结构出发构建了针对于A股市场具有更强资产定价能力且更具一般代表性的系统性风险因子组合,并对其相应的因子特征及补偿定价结构进行了全面拆解及深入分析.研究结果显示:1)与CH-4以及Fama-French多因子定价模型相比,基于高维高频的RP-PCA因子组合捕获了更多的系统性风险特征,拥有着更好的定价表现以及更为稳健的时变载荷结构;2)A股市场中隐含着五个稳定的系统性风险因子.除市场因子外,其余四个因子分别可由以金融为代表的六个特定细分行业的投资组合近似表示;3)A股市场的系统性风险未被完全定价,风险敞口的非对称性特征显著存在.整体来看,投资者或更加关注于系统上涨而个股下跌以及系统及个股同时下跌的风险.

    Abstract:

    Facing the challenges of large-dimensional characteristics and the limitations of ad-hoc sparsity assumption, this paper constructs a portfolio of systematic risk factors with stronger asset pricing capability and broader representativeness for the A-share market. Drawing on the implicit factor structure with reference to the cutting-edge research in the field of large-dimensional factor statistical inference, this study conducts a comprehensive deconstruction and analysis of the corresponding factor characteristics and their associated risk compensation structure. The results indicate that: 1) Compared with the CH-〖KG*4〗4 and Fama-French multi-factor pricing models, the large-dimensional high-frequency RP-PCA factor portfolio captures more systematic risk characteristics and exhibits better pricing performance along with a more robust time-varying loading structure; 2) The A-share market contains five stable systematic risk factors. Apart from the market factor, the other four can be approximated by the portfolios of six specific sub-sectors, predominantly represented by the finance sector; 3) Systematic risk in the A-share market is not fully priced, and there is significant asymmetry in risk exposure. Overall, investors tend to be more concerned about risks when the market rises while individual stocks fall, as well as during simultaneous declines in both the market and individual stocks.

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魏照昊,李秀婷,卢全莹,董纪昌,董志.基于高维因子模型的A股市场系统性风险研究[J].管理科学学报,2026,(4):66~84

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-03
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