价格调控对碳市场效率和稳定性的影响研究
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Impacts of price regulation on the efficiency and stability in carbon market
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    摘要:

    碳市场政企间信息不对称将导致政企难以达成稳定的碳减排履约合作,造成碳市场效率和稳定性损失.本研究构建跨期碳市场政企Stackelberg博弈模型,从碳价调控视角构造碳市场基准、碳价下限调整、碳价上限调整和碳价上下限调整情景,探讨跨期碳市场最优配额设定方案,采用参与中国全国性碳市场458家电厂样本数据评估和揭示碳价调控对碳市场效率和稳定性影响.研究发现,碳价调控显著影响最优碳配额供给量、跨期碳市场效率和稳定性.企业减排技术溢出、碳配额供给量上限和碳价上下限设值是碳价调控机制影响碳市场效率和稳定性的重要因素.当碳配额供给量上限大于配额阈值下限,且碳价下限大于基准碳价阈值和小于碳价阈值下限时,碳价下限和碳价上下限机制调整有助于提高碳价,但降低市场稳定性和加重碳减排社会总成本.当碳配额供给量上限大于配额阈值上限,且碳价上限小于基准碳价阈值时,碳价上限和碳价上下限机制调整有助于避免碳价大幅上涨且提高市场稳定性,但加重碳减排社会总成本.本研究将有助于为跨期碳市场建设,保障碳市场有效且稳定运行提供理论支撑和政策借鉴.

    Abstract:

    Information asymmetry between the government and firms in the carbon market hinders firms from achieving sustainable emission reductions, thereby undermining carbon market efficiency and stability. This paper develops an intertemporal carbon market Stackelberg game model between the government and the firms. Scenarios of the benchmark, the carbon price floor adjustment, the carbon price ceiling adjustment, and the carbon price collars adjustment are constructed. The optimal carbon permit cap is then derived. The impacts of carbon price regulation on carbon market efficiency and stability are explored theoretically and numerically by analyzing a sample of 458 power plants in China’s national carbon market. The results reveal that carbon price regulation significantly affects carbon permit cap setting, market efficiency and stability. The carbon permit allocation ceiling and carbon price collars are critical factors influencing carbon market efficiency and stability. When the carbon permit allocation ceiling exceeds the carbon permit threshold floor, and the carbon price floor is greater than the benchmark carbon price threshold but lower than the carbon price threshold floor, carbon price floor and collars adjustments help raise the carbon price. However, these adjustments reduce carbon market stability and aggravate social carbon emission abatement costs. When the carbon permit allocation ceiling exceeds the carbon permit threshold ceiling and the carbon price ceiling is less than the benchmark carbon price threshold, both carbon price ceiling and collars adjustments help prevent a sharp rise in carbon price and increase market stability, but they do not decrease social carbon emission abatement costs. This paper provides theoretical support and policy implications for the construction of an intertemporal carbon market to ensure its effective and stable operation.

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黄丽清,朱帮助,王平,江民星.价格调控对碳市场效率和稳定性的影响研究[J].管理科学学报,2026,(5):17~31

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-29
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