时变限价指令簿网络、市场冲击与信息溢出
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Time-varying limit order book networks, market impact, and information spillover
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    摘要:

    本研究从逐笔动态演化限价指令簿中提取有效变量,基于高维向量自回归模型,采用后双选LASSO方法实现高维时间序列格兰杰因果检验,利用Bootstrap方法计算广义预测误差方差分解,构建限价指令簿网络,实证研究了市场冲击下我国股票市场信息溢出过程.研究表明:第一,相较于股票价格网络,限价指令簿网络纳入了更多市场微观结构变量,能够更为清晰地刻画市场冲击下信息在股票间、交易者间的溢出路径;第二,信息溢出不仅存在自冲击路径,而且存在大量交叉冲击路径,由于个别交叉冲击路径强度较大,信息在样本股票自身内部流转的同时,也会从部分股票中逐渐溢出,信息溢出过程综合反映了股票现实关联性特征.第三,我国股票市场严格的卖空约束导致买入卖出侧路径存在不平衡特征,信息通过买入侧委托指令从具有信息优势的交易者溢出至普通交易者.第四,在市场下跌阶段,信息溢出过程存在羊群效应与过度反应现象.

    Abstract:

    This study investigates information spillover mechanisms in China’s stock market under market shocks through constructing limit order book (LOB) networks. A methodological framework is developed that extracts informative variables from dynamically evolving LOB data, employs a high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model with post-double-selection LASSO regularization for Granger causality testing, and implements bootstrapping techniques to compute generalized forecast error variance decompositions. Four principal findings emerge from our empirical analysis. First, LOB networks demonstrate superior descriptive capabilities over conventional price networks by incorporating critical market microstructure variables, thereby enabling precise identification of information spillover mechanisms during market shocks. Second, the spillover dynamics exhibit complex network structures comprising both own-impact paths and significant cross impact paths. The coexistence of these mechanisms reveals that while information predominantly circulates within individual stocks, substantial cross market spillovers occur through key bridging nodes, collectively reflecting the market’s intrinsic correlation structure. Third, regulatory constraints on short selling induce notable bid-ask asymmetries in information diffusion, with predominant spillover directions originating from informationally advantaged traders to retail participants via bid-side order flows. Fourth, intensified herding behavior and overreaction patterns are observed in spillover dynamics during market downturns.

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刘志东,王超,赵致远,荆中博.时变限价指令簿网络、市场冲击与信息溢出[J].管理科学学报,2026,(5):141~158

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-29
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