评级机构的等级一致性研究
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Consistency of ratings across Chinese credit rating agencies
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    摘要:

    近年来我国评级行业不断开放,但同时评级的公正性和一致性常受质疑.本研究关注中国评级机构间的等级一致性,即不同评级机构给出的相同评级等级是否表示相同的信用风险——此A是否等价彼A,并在此基础上探讨形成机制、动机和影响.研究发现:1)不同机构评级的债券,即使评级等级相同,其在发行时利差和发行后违约概率、二级市场利差、收益率波动及评级调整概率等信用风险方面仍存在显著差异;2)同等级债券在常见的可观测风险指标上相似,机构不一致的本质是信息不对称下的分离均衡——在可观测风险指标类似的情况下,不同信用风险的债券选择不同评级机构,因此评级机构的选择揭示了债券的不可观测风险信息;3)监管的临界等级要求为机构不一致提供了动机,原本不能达到临界等级的债务主体,通过选择激进的评级机构获得有利评级进入债券市场;4)倾向得分匹配和以债务主体与评级机构的距离为工具变量的Heckman两步法结果均表明,这种为了监管套利的评级膨胀式融资未改善公司表现,提升资金配置效率.

    Abstract:

    The credit rating industry has played a pioneering role in the broader opening of Chinese financial markets in recent years, but its fairness and consistency have been frequently doubted. This research studies rating consistency across Chinese credit rating agencies and discusses its underlying mechanism, motivation, and impacts. The results show that bonds with identical ratings given by different agencies differ in credit risk, with significant differences in issuance spreads, default rates, yield spreads, yield volatility, and probabilities of rating adjustments after issuance. However, given observable characteristics, ratings do not vary across agencies. This indicates that the rating inconsistency across agencies is a separating equilibrium under information asymmetry: Issuers with similar observable characteristics but differing credit risk choose different rating agencies, so that their choice of rating agencies consequently signals the bonds’ unobservable risk. Moreover, it is shown that the threshold rating requirements set by regulations motivate the rating inconsistency, which enables ineligible firms to obtain inflated ratings from aggressive agencies and thus successfully access bond markets. Using propensity score matching and Heckman two-stage approach to address endogeneity, further analysis reveals that this rating-inflated financing for regulatory arbitrage does not result in subsequent outperformance by bond issuers.

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朱妮,卢瑞昌,刘晓蕾.评级机构的等级一致性研究[J].管理科学学报,2026,(5):159~175

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-05-29
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