基于主体仿真的制造企业生产模式竞争与市场演化
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Market competition and evolution of manufacturing firms using agent-based simulation
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    摘要:

    制造企业主要有按订单生产(MTO)和按库存生产(MTS)两种生产模式.不同模式的企业在彼此竞争的同时,还面临市场需求的波动、客户偏好的变化.为了探索这些市场因素对制造企业竞争结果的影响机理,本研究仿真MTO和MTS制造商的生产与定价的决策过程,构建了一个包含供应商、制造商、需求方、市场四类主体的市场竞争模型,研究不同需求类型(稳定型、周期型、脉冲型、混合型)与不同需求偏好(时间敏感、均衡、价格敏感)下市场的演化结果.验证模型后,本研究通过实验设计和方差分析,发现需求类型对于两类企业绩效的影响不显著,而需求偏好产生了显著影响:当需求对交期时间敏感时,MTO企业占优,而MTS企业更适合具有价格偏好的需求.当市场不断有进入者和淘汰者时,MTS企业生存概率更大.

    Abstract:

    Manufacturing firms have two main modes of production: Make-to-order (MTO) and make-to-stock (MTS). While competing with each other, firms in different modes also face fluctuations in market demand and changes in customer preferences. In order to explore the influence of these market factors on the competitive outcome of manufacturing enterprises, this paper simulates the production and pricing decision-making processes of MTO and MTS manufacturers, constructs a market competition model containing four types of subjects: Suppliers, manufacturers, demand side, and market, and investigates the evolution of the market under different types of demand (stable, cyclical, impulsive, and mixed) and different demand preferences (time-sensitive, equilibrium, and price-sensitive). After validating the model, this paper, through experimental design and ANOVA, finds that the effect of demand type on the performance of the two types of firms is insignificant, while demand preference produces a significant effect: MTO firms dominate when the demand is sensitive to delivery time, while MTS firms are better suited to the demand with price preference. MTS firms have a higher probability of survival when there are constant entrants and eliminators in the market.

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刘艺铭,练俊超,袁铭扬,贺舟.基于主体仿真的制造企业生产模式竞争与市场演化[J].管理科学学报,2026,(6):15~31

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-03
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