财政政策如何提质增效?——基于生产网络的政策传导机制研究
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How can fiscal policy improve quality and efficiency? The policy transmission mechanism based on production networks
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    摘要:

    面对复杂严峻的外部环境与国内结构调整深水区的双重挑战,积极的财政政策适度加力、提质增效,不仅是稳预期的关键,更是推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长的重要保障.本研究首先将生产网络纳入一般均衡模型之中,深入分析财政政策冲击对行业产出变动影响效应的传导机制,发现在生产网络中政府购买冲击对行业产出和中间品引致需求的传导方向是自下而上的.随后利用世界投入产出数据库(WIOD)中的投入产出表进行实证检验,验证了财政政策生产网络上游效应的显著性.受到需求和供给价格弹性、行业与最终需求距离等因素的影响,在感应度低和上游度小的行业中生产网络上游效应显著为负,与感应度高和上游度大的行业中的正向生产网络上游效应形成了明显对比.此外,行业结构因素对于政府购买支出冲击效应具有显著的调节作用.在发挥政府购买支出需求扩张功能的同时,应充分重视财政政策在行业间的溢出效应,基于生产网络实现财政政策乘数的放大,促进财政政策提质增效.

    Abstract:

    Faced with the challenges of a complex and severe external environment and the critical deepening stage of domestic structural adjustment, a proactive fiscal policy that is moderately intensified, of higher quality, and more efficient is not only crucial for stabilizing expectations but also serves as a significant safeguard for promoting both qualitative improvement and quantitative rational growth of the economy.Production networks are incorporated into a general equilibrium model to theoretically analyze the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy shocks on sectoral output fluctuations.The theoretical analysis reveals that within the production network, the transmission of government spending shocks to sectoral output follows a bottom-up direction.An empirical analysis is then conducted using input-output tables from the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), verifying the significance of the upstream network effect of fiscal policy.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the upstream network effect is significantly negative in sectors with low sensitivity and low upstreamness, influenced by factors such as the price elasticity of supply and demand and the distance to final demand. This stands in sharp contrast to the positive effect observed in sectors with high sensitivity and high upstreamness. In addition, sectoral structure factors significantly moderate the effects of government spending shock.It is argued that while leveraging the demand expansion function of government spending, policymakers should fully prioritize sectoral spillover effects.By amplifying the fiscal multiplier through production networks, fiscal policy can achieve higher quality and efficiency.

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周宗莉,储德银.财政政策如何提质增效?——基于生产网络的政策传导机制研究[J].管理科学学报,2026,(6):91~105

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-03
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