中国家庭经济风险测度、国际比较与缓冲机制
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Household economic risk in China: Measurement, international comparison, and risk mitigation
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    摘要:

    本研究基于2011年—2023年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,从财务脆弱性、贫困脆弱性和破产风险三个维度刻画中国家庭经济风险的现状、变化趋势和异质性特征.研究发现,中国贫困脆弱家庭比例下降,但处于财务脆弱和面临破产风险家庭比例却有所上升,且农村、北方和老年家庭的经济风险更大.此外,本研究基于其他国家微观调查数据发现,中国家庭经济风险相较于其他国家并不突出,但其逐渐上升的态势亟需关注.进一步研究发现,外生事件冲击显著提高了家庭财务脆弱性、贫困脆弱性和破产风险,而社会网络、社会保障、金融服务和人力资本能有效帮助家庭抵御冲击带来的经济风险.本研究可为防范化解家庭经济风险,促进家庭经济平稳健康发展提供参考.

    Abstract:

    Based on data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS),this study measures and analyzes the status, trends, and group heterogeneity of household economic risks along three dimensions: Financial vulnerability, poverty vulnerability, and insolvency risk.The results show that although the proportion of households experiencing poverty vulnerability has declined significantly, the share of households facing financial vulnerability and insolvency risk has risen. Moreover, rural households, northern households, and elderly households are exposed to higher economic risks.Applying micro-survey data from other countries, this paper finds that while China’s household economic risks are not particularly high in cross-country comparison, their increasing trend over time calls for attention.Furthermore, this study empirically reveals that exogenous shocks significantly increase financial vulnerability, poverty vulnerability, and insolvency risk, while social networks, social security, financial services, and human capital play important roles in alleviating the economic risks.Our study provides valuable insights for mitigating household economic risks and promoting stable and healthy development of household economies.

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尹志超,刘嘉怡,吴子硕.中国家庭经济风险测度、国际比较与缓冲机制[J].管理科学学报,2026,(6):120~134

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-03
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