考虑在线评论和自选择偏差的产品线策略研究
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Optimal product line design with online reviews and self-selection bias
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    摘要:

    消费者自选择偏差可能导致在线评论信息失真,对企业产品定价、质量决策及迭代策略产生显著影响.本研究在评论生成过程中引入自选择偏差因素,构建两阶段产品发布的动态决策模型,探讨企业在复杂信息环境下的最优产品线策略.分别针对不考虑评论、考虑客观评论及考虑存在正向或负向自选择偏差的三种情境,探讨最优产品线策略,并分析自选择偏差与评论对企业利润和消费者剩余的影响.研究发现:首先,客观评论不影响第一阶段产品发布策略;负向自选择偏差促使企业在第一阶段提高质量并降低价格,正向自选择偏差则相反.其次,自选择偏差的方向与强度、产品体验质量及生产成本共同决定了企业的产品线策略.最后,自选择偏差与评论对企业利润和消费者剩余的影响并非单向:不同偏差程度和成本条件下,评论既可能提升双方收益,也可能加剧二者之间的利益分化.仅当负向偏差较弱或存在正向偏差,且生产成本较高时,企业与消费者才能实现共赢.本研究揭示了评论偏差对企业动态产品决策的内在机制,为企业制定合理的产品价格、质量迭代与评论管理策略提供了科学的理论依据.

    Abstract:

    Online reviews have a profound impact on firms’ pricing and quality strategies. However, consumer self-selection bias may distort review information and mislead firm’s decisions. This paper incorporates consumer self-selection into the review-generation process and develops a two-period dynamic model to study firms’ optimal product line design and pricing decisions. It compares three informational environments: No reviews, objective (unbiased) reviews, and reviews subject to positive or negative self-selection bias. The analysis yields several insights. First, objective reviews do not affect initial product introduction decisions, whereas biased reviews systematically distort firms’ subsequent choices: Negative bias induces higher quality and lower prices, while positive bias leads to the opposite response. Second, optimal product line strategies depend jointly on the direction and magnitude of review bias, product experience quality, and production costs. Third, the welfare effects of online reviews are non-monotonic. Depending on cost and bias conditions, reviews may either improve both firm profits and consumer surplus or exacerbate conflicts between them. A win-win outcome arises only when negative bias is sufficiently weak or when bias is positive and production costs are relatively high. Overall, this study clarifies how biased online reviews reshape firms’ dynamic product decisions and offers insights into pricing, quality iteration, and review management.

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闫欣,卞亦文,韩小花.考虑在线评论和自选择偏差的产品线策略研究[J].管理科学学报,2026,(7):94~108

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-08-17
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