The System Thinking for the Global Financial Volatility and Contagion
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    Abstract:

    Since the considerable depreciation of Thailand baht in July 1997 the global financial volatility and contagion is beyond over.Many correlative discussions em erge in endlessly.W hile those traditional analysis methods,which are mainly applied to the research objects in the level of countries,always overemphasize the impact of a few even specific factors。The global financial volatility and contagion are always clarified isolatedly and still aiming at the changes of economic states in specific countries and their policy lapses.Although these discussions also involve some exoterie circumstance changes,they still lack the hough cognition of the substaintial changes of the exoteric circumstances;Lack the one of the nonlinear cornprehensive impact of all relative factors;lack the one of the global large—scale economic system viewed from the expa nded system ;tack the one of the essential changes 0f affect and spread mechanism in the global economy In general,they lack the system thinking。This paper illuminates that the global economy has developed into the fourth age,i+e,the instantaneous strong connecting age.Substaintial great changes.which would be summarized to night points,are happening now to the global economy.Some circumstance factors in the traditional system have gradually evolved into a part of the system.That is,some exogenous variables have become endogenous ones.In many eases the economic relations among cuntries have no longer been regam ed as the relations be tween a country and it exoteric circumstance.All the countries in the world have become a closely correlative system whole.Therefore the present supervisory system has not been suited to manage this kind of hrge—scale system anymore.That is the essence that leads to the global financial volatility and contagion.This paper also points out that the more integrative the world is,the weaker impact the macro control m easures of a single country such as final and monetary policies etc. could have on the country itself,while the greater on the other countries,thus the more necessary it is to take united and coordinate actions.The significance of the reconstruction of new global financial supe rvisory system is clarified as well as some feasible measures and some problems that need to be considered.

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