Bounded logistic default risk model and empirical evidences from China
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    Abstract:

    Cramer pointed out shortcoming of plain Logistic default model and put forward bounded Logistic model. This paper does some further research about bounded Logistic default model. We first demonstrate why bounded Logistic default model is super to plain Logistic model theoretically through sampling distribution analysis. Then we give empirical evidences based on China companies' data. We not only find evidences about Cramer' s problem, but also find that bounded Logistic model can solve the Cramer' s problem, not sensitive to critical value and have higher prediction efficiency.

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