Estimation of VaR based on nonparametric GARCH models with Markov re_x0002_gime switching
DOI:
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    Considering the characteristics of volatility with regime switching of the stock market and the misspecification of the parametric model,the paper proposes a nonparametric GARCH model with Markov regime switching,and uses nonparametric estimating technique to estimate the volatility.We classify the volatility of China’s stock market into three states: the fall,the consolidation and the rise.We estimate and forecast the volatility of both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets using parametric and nonparametric GARCH models with Markov regime switching,and then we evaluate the performances of these models using MSE1,MSE2 and QLIKE.The result shows that the parametric and nonparametric MRS-GARCH model in which the error term follows a normal distribution is more accurate.Based on these models,we estimate the dynamic VaR of the return of Shanghai composite index and Shenzhen component index of China’s stock market.Then,using Kupiec back testing,we evaluate the performances of these models to predict the market risk.It is concluded that the parametric and nonparametric MRS-GARCH models can both estimate the VaR of China’s stock market well,and what is more,the performance of the nonparametric MRS-GARCH model is better than that of the parametric MRS-GARCH model.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: April 16,2018
  • Published:
You are the th visitor Address:Room 908, Building A, 25th Teaching Building, Tianjin University, 92 Weijin Road, Nankai District, Tianjin Postcode:300072
Telephone:022-27403197 Email:jmsc@tju.edu.cn