Economic downturn,credit risk feedback and government implicit bailout
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    Abstract:

    This paper analyzes the risk transmission among corporate, bank and government sectors in a background of economic downturn based on the balance sheet, and builds a risk feedback model to analyze the risk feedback between the bank and government sectors using the explicit liabilities and implicit guarantee items in the contingent claim balance sheet. At last, the relationship between government implicit bailout and the cost of bank bailouts is analyzed. The empirical analysis shows that money supply and exchange rates can influence the risk transmission among the three sectors. The implicit guarantee leads to risk feedback between the bank and government sector. Regulatory forbearance increases the government’s implicit bailout costs. Therefore, the government should control the money supply and the volatility of foreign exchange rates, reduce the regulatory forbearance levels, and set up dynamic and systematic risk loss reserves.

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  • Online: April 12,2018
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