Impact of housing price fluctuation and income growth on housing consump-tion: Analysis of regional heterogeneity using SYS-GMM model
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    Abstract:

    Based on the life cycle-permanent income hypothesis,the paper derives the housing consumption formula with housing prices,income,and wealth utilizing the general stochastic Ramsey model. Then,it ap-plies a two step System-GMM estimating method to investigate the impact of the housing price fluctuation and income on housing consumption using panel data of 31 provinces from 2002 to 2013. The empirical results show that housing price inflation has significant inhibitory effects on national residential housing consumption as a whole: the housing prices in the lag phase and current phase are negatively associated with current hous-ing consumption,and the prices in next phase has a positive wealth effect on housing consumption. Moreover, the housing consumption in the current phase always moves in the same direction as the lag phase. Among the novel findings there are also evidences indicating that income and deposit are important supporting factors for housing consumption.

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  • Online: April 14,2018
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