The mechanism and solution for the liquidity stampede crisis in stock mar-kets
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    Abstract:

    This paper proposes a scenario-based analysis and solutions for the liquidity stampede crisis in Chi-nese stock markets in 2015. The agent-based model simulates the realistic features of this liquidity stampede crisis,including monotonous downfall of prices,illiquidity contagion,liquidity dry-up of the whole market, and a slow recovery due to the permanent price impact of the liquidity crisis. More importantly,simulations show that a few margin purchases with high-leverages can cause the liquidity stampede crisis. When irrational investors employ chartist strategies to forecast prices and use the adaptive switching model for portfolio manage-ment,the high leverage will stimulate bubbles and crashes and generate illiquidity contagion,which leads to chain reactions of mandatory liquidation. Moreover,the transaction mechanism with continuous double auction and price limit aggravates the liquidity stampede crisis. Based on a scenario-based analysis,three effective so-lutions,namely,maintaining a low leverage,introducing temporary market makers to support emergency liq-uidity,and using the block trading system to buy the mandatory liquidation positions,are proposed.

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  • Online: April 14,2018
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