Risk measurement for portfolio credit risk with risk factors with heavy-tailed distruibution
DOI:
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    This paper develops an efficient simulation method to calculate credit portfolio risks when the risk factors have heavy-tailed distributions. In modeling heavy tails,the features of return on the underlying assets are captured by multivariate t-copula. Moreover,a three-step importance sampling ( IS) technique is devel-oped in the t-copula credit portfolio risk measure model for further variance reduction. This broadens and enri-ches credit portfolio risk measure models. Simultaneously,the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm associated with nonlinear optimal technique is applied to estimate the mean-shift vector of the systematic risk factors after the probability measure changes. Numerical results show that IS technique based on t-copula is more efficient and accurate than plain Monte Carlo simulation in calculating the tail probability of distribution of portfolio loss ( or VaR of credit portfolio risk under a given confidence level) and that the IS technique can decrease the vari-ance of estimation on the tail probability to a great degree.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: April 14,2018
  • Published:
You are the th visitor Address:Room 908, Building A, 25th Teaching Building, Tianjin University, 92 Weijin Road, Nankai District, Tianjin Postcode:300072
Telephone:022-27403197 Email:jmsc@tju.edu.cn