Perceived risk and overconfidence of structured financial products investors
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    Abstract:

    This paper quantifies the risk of structured financial products by the perceived risk measures based on the standard measures of risk,and then constructs risk perception and decision making models of individual investors for structured products. Moreover,the psychological bias of overconfidence is introduced to explore the mechanism how the bias affects investors’perceived risk. The paper finds that overconfident investors believe in private signals and underestimate the variance of noise in private signals,which affects their expectation of the underlying asset price of structured financial products. Then the overconfidence bias leads investors to overestimate the probability of getting a better return. With the increase of overconfidence,the overvaluation of the probability is intensified,which eventually leads to lower perceived risk.

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  • Online: May 13,2018
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