Network effects, emerging industries evolution and niche cultivation: An agent-based modeling simulation from electric vehicle industry
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F403.6

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    Abstract:

    The limited market demand is the key factor restricting the development of electric vehicle industry, and the market cultivation becomes an important and urgent problem to be solved in the evolution of electric vehicle industry. In this paper, the characteristics of network effects are firstly analyze d in the automobile industry and its existence is tested. A decision-making model including both heterogeneous manufacturers and consumers is constructed based on an agent-based framework to simulate the basic evolutionary process of auto industry under network effects and the distribution of market demand. The different effects of charging infrastructure construction for the electric vehicle market cultivation are then discussed. The results show that there exists both direct and indirect network effects separately concerning the user's size and complementary infrastructure in the auto industry. Conventional vehicles have been dominating the market during the evolution, leaving a very limited market share to EVs. Regarding the spatial distribution, the demand of electric vehicles shows a“decentralized-concentrated”trend in the simulation. The construction of charging infrastructure stimulates consumers' purchase willingness effectively by enhancing the network effects, which is demonstrated in the stage when the distribution of EV demand is turning from disperse to centralized. Compared with the overall construction, local construction can strengthen the network effects intensively by increasing the density of charging stations in specific areas to increase the willingness of potential consumers to buy electric cars, and therefore, accelerates the expansion of EVs' market demand.

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  • Online: October 25,2021
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