Complexity and its degradation theory of megaproject management decisions
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N94

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    Abstract:

    Management of megaprojects is a typical complex system. The characteristics of megaproject complexity,and how to solve such complexity,are popular in the field of project management. A conceptual model is established to study the effects of complex factors,such as decision relevance,cognitive ambiguity and bias,and limited knowledge,on megaproject management. Then,in a complexity framework of decision relevance and incomplete information,the complexities associated with megaproject management decisions are divided into four types: “chaos”,“conflict”,“relevance”,and “hybrid”complexities. In accordance with those four types of complexity,this paper proposes a“complexity degradation”theory that consists of four basic logical strategies: complexity exploration,complexity absorption,complexity decomposition,and complexity tolerance. The complexity degradation theory reveals a complex self-organization law in the practice of megaproject management decision-making,and illustrates the endogenous and dynamic evolutionary characteristics of the complexities involved in megaproject management decisions. Finally,the complexity degradation theory is verified through the management decision-making practices of a deck pavement project for the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge,which provides an enlightening illustration of the complexity degradation theory and its application to megaproject management.

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  • Online: October 25,2021
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