Predicting market interest rates via reverse restricted MIDAS model
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F832

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    Abstract:

    In order to accurately predict market interest rates,a novel Reverse Restricted MIDAS ( RR-MI-DAS) model is developed on the basis of the MIDAS and RU-MIDAS models. The RR-MIDAS model can be applied to the prediction of high frequency variables using low frequency variables when the frequency mismatch is pretty large. SHIBOR is used as a representative of market interest rates,and an empirical analysis of SHIBOR forecasts is conducted. The empirical results show that the RR-MIDAS model outperforms the others in terms of goodness of fit and prediction ability since it is able to explore the dynamic relationships among var iables. The results show that both macroeconomic variables and the capital market information could influence the money supply and demand in one week,or even one day,and will quickly lead to a change of SHIBOR.Moreover,robustness tests are implemented to illustrate the efficacy of the RR-MIDAS model and the reliability of the empirical conclusions.

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  • Online: October 25,2021
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