The development of global value chains and regional trade liberalization poses new challenges to the measurement of effective protection rate (EPR) . This paper constructs a new EPR measurement method in the Global Multi-regional Input-output Model，develops a Bilateral Industry Tariff Database to reveal the latest trends in China’s EPR，and conducts a simulation analysis on Sino-US trade frictions and its possible future scenarios. The results show that from 2000 to 2014，China’s overall EPR fell from 22. 25% to 12. 56% ，and that the producers in China are increasingly facing a more competitive situation. Industrial EPR is positively correlated with the change of the ratio of industrial value added to GDP，so the resource allocation effect of tariff is obvious. However，the inter-industry differences in EPR are shrinking，meaning that the policy space for tariff measures in allocating resource is narrowing. The Sino-US trade frictions will increase the EPR of the chemical raw materials，an industry contains many backward production capacity，but will have adverse effects on supply-side reforms. The friction will also reduce the EPR of some labor-intensive industries，such as textile，apparel and leather products industries，and shock employment. Both CPTPP and RECP can help alleviate the change of EPR caused by Sino-US trade frictions in some industries，and help alleviate the negative impact of Sino-US trade frictions.