Simulation of the cascading effect of anti-dumping embedded in global production network
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    Abstract:

    By applying the complex network theory to the input-output model and introducing it into the macroeconomic production function theoretical model, this paper investigates and simulates the internal mechanism of anti-dumping embedded in the global production network and its cascading effect. The analysis results reveal that from the network perspective, the effect of anti-dumping shocks on intermediate products is significantly greater than that on final products, and the intermediate products that cross borders multiple times will cumulatively increase the trade cost caused by anti-dumping. The effects caused by anti-dumping, including lower induced demand, suppressed export trade, and fluctuations in aggregate output levels across industries and countries, will spread along the input-output relationships in the global production networks. This results in a significant cascading effect that decay with the connection (trade volume) between different country-sector nodes. The cascading effect of anti-dumping not only involves the direct connection nodes, such as the domestic upstream and downstream industries of the countries involved in the anti-dumping case of the global production network, but also affects the indirect connection nodes, such as the third-party countries and regions through the production network, thereby affecting the development of global multilateral trade. The cascading effect also prevents network nodes from participating in the division of production in the global value chain, resulting in the extension of the domestic value chain of the country (region) to which the node belongs. After the anti-dumping measures are embedded in the global production network, they generate a total fluctuation effect through the entire production network, thereby changing the topological structure of the global production network. In other words, the global production network becomes relatively sparse, and the network distance between nodes becomes longer.

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  • Online: October 16,2024
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