“Carbon bubble”, stranded assets, and emission reduction path: A policy regulation perspective
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    Abstract:

    Based on the current situation of stranded assets faced by energy companies under the background of environmental protection policies, this paper constructs a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model including heterogeneous energy production firms and fossil fuel asset accumulation decisions. It discusses the carbon emission reduction paths corresponding to different environmental policies and the impact of emission reduction on social welfare under policy regulation. It is found that emission reduction policies lead to a decline in the value of fossil fuel reserves held by energy companies, resulting in the bursting of the “carbon bubble” and the gradual stranding of fossil fuel assets. This affects the financing and production of the energy sector, ultimately causing a decline in total output and consumption. Compared with financial policies and industrial policies, tax policies for emission reduction result in smaller welfare losses. Among different tax policies, energy taxes are the most effective in reducing distortions and improving social welfare. In terms of the “carbon bubble” caused by the stranding of fossil energy reserve assets, the “carbon bubble” caused by an energy tax is the smallest, while the “carbon bubble” caused by a fossil fuel reserve investment tax is the largest.

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  • Online: September 23,2025
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