How to use the economic and financial cycles to improve asset allocation?
DOI:
Author:
Affiliation:

Clc Number:

Fund Project:

  • Article
  • |
  • Figures
  • |
  • Metrics
  • |
  • Reference
  • |
  • Related
  • |
  • Cited by
  • |
  • Materials
  • |
  • Comments
    Abstract:

    This study incorporates economic and financial cycles into asset allocation to enhance portfolio efficiency. Utilizing wavelet decomposition and principal component analysis, the paper constructs variables that broadly represent economic and financial cycles. Then, this study proposes the WISE Clock, a new data-driven investment strategy that extend the traditional Merrill Lynch Investment Clock by incorporating financial cycle. Employing machine learning techniques and cyclical information, this study forecasts asset returns for the U.S. and Chinese markets and integrates these predictions into a Black-Litterman framework. Backtesting results confirm that the approach significantly surpasses traditional models, enhancing portfolio risk-return performance.

    Reference
    Related
    Cited by
Get Citation
Share
Article Metrics
  • Abstract:
  • PDF:
  • HTML:
  • Cited by:
History
  • Received:
  • Revised:
  • Adopted:
  • Online: December 01,2025
  • Published:
You are the th visitor Address:Room 908, Building A, 25th Teaching Building, Tianjin University, 92 Weijin Road, Nankai District, Tianjin Postcode:300072
Telephone:022-27403197 Email:jmsc@tju.edu.cn