Abstract:Since the considerable depreciation of Thailand baht in July 1997 the global financial volatility and contagion is beyond over．Many correlative discussions em erge in endlessly．W hile those traditional analysis methods，which are mainly applied to the research objects in the level of countries，always overemphasize the impact of a few even specific factors。The global financial volatility and contagion are always clarified isolatedly and still aiming at the changes of economic states in specific countries and their policy lapses．Although these discussions also involve some exoterie circumstance changes，they still lack the hough cognition of the substaintial changes of the exoteric circumstances；Lack the one of the nonlinear cornprehensive impact of all relative factors；lack the one of the global large—scale economic system viewed from the expa nded system ；tack the one of the essential changes 0f affect and spread mechanism in the global economy In general，they lack the system thinking。This paper illuminates that the global economy has developed into the fourth age，i+e，the instantaneous strong connecting age．Substaintial great changes．which would be summarized to night points，are happening now to the global economy．Some circumstance factors in the traditional system have gradually evolved into a part of the system．That is，some exogenous variables have become endogenous ones．In many eases the economic relations among cuntries have no longer been regam ed as the relations be tween a country and it exoteric circumstance．All the countries in the world have become a closely correlative system whole．Therefore the present supervisory system has not been suited to manage this kind of hrge—scale system anymore．That is the essence that leads to the global financial volatility and contagion．This paper also points out that the more integrative the world is，the weaker impact the macro control m easures of a single country such as final and monetary policies etc． could have on the country itself，while the greater on the other countries，thus the more necessary it is to take united and coordinate actions．The significance of the reconstruction of new global financial supe rvisory system is clarified as well as some feasible measures and some problems that need to be considered．

Abstract:Computer assistant enterprise resources planning(ERP)is a new reflection of current enterprise management ideas．Capability requirement planning (CRP)is an important component of ERP．First，this pape r discusses several key points in CRP，and then．addreses the problem of the capability balance，proposes a tractable adjustment strategy and an assistant decision method ．

Abstract:Based on Ba yesian Rule，a method for testing of veriable structure linear regresion model is presented ．Then general formulas of the method applying to practical problem is given on the case of two different form of variances of disturbing item ．The examples show effectiveness of the m ethod ．

Abstract:Under the assumption that the spot return rate of a security fo1lows the Ito stochastic differen． tial equation，the return and risk of the security is defined as the expectation of the spot rate and the var Jante of the rate．The differential equation for the return and the risk are derived by using the Kolmogorov equation．Based on the theory of non—parametric estimation，a method for identifying the equation of spotrate is provided．Finally，the modeling method and the identifying method are applied to the analysis of Chinese financial market，and simulation results are presented．

Abstract:ArtificiaI neural network(ANN)and expert system (ES)，as the two branches of artificial intelligence ，have many successful application examples． However，as a single system ，both ANN and ES have much limitations，mostly represented by the bottle neck problem in knowledge acquisition of ES and the black—box structure in know~dge—representation of ANN．IN order to solving these probloms an integrated system to assist stock investors in stock performance analysis has been developed ．which tries to integrate artificial neural network with expert system ，and achieves the strong plementarity：solving the difficulty in knowledge—acquisition of ES by ANN’s excellent capacity of self—organizing．selflearning and self—adaptation，and the weakness of ANN on knowledge representation by the valuable explain function of ES．The analysis and design of the integrated system’s functions and structure，and the crucial technologies about knowledge acquisition，rule extraction and inference in the integrated system are discussed in detail．It demonstrates the advantages of this integrated approach and how it can enhance support for mamagerial decision making．

Abstract:In this paper，bilevel linear programming with fuzzy coefficients is studied． Bilevel linear programming with fuzzy coefficients whose membership functions are monotonous and non monotonous is transformed into bilevel linear programming with precise coefficients through different approaches respectively．Two num erical examples are solved to show the applicability of these approaehes

Abstract:Based on Ba yesian Rule，a method for testing of veriable structure linear regresion model is presented ．Then general formulas of the method applying to practical problem is given on the case of two different form of variances of disturbing item ．The examples show effectiveness of the method

Abstract:Knowledge sharing and reusing is an important and effective technology to solve knowledge and software crisis，as well as the important research content of knowledge engineering．artificial intelligence and information system．In this paper，its application in developing knowledge system and knowledge base model ol distributed cooperative IDSS is studied，especially the implement of the system structure．element base model and knowledge base based on ontology．The methods and results have general s nificance

Abstract:Supply chain management is a new management idea，with the development of W W W and Internet／lntranet，MRP and lnternet／lntranet will be integrated in the future．In this paper，vce propose a framework of MRP system design under environment of supply chain management

Abstract:This paper discusses some problems of non—constant sum muhipersons and muhicriteria cooperatire game．The definitions of characteristic function，allocating matrix，core as we Ll as other relative concepts are proposed．The nature of the above definitions and the existence of core are discussed，in addition，a method for determining the core of a given problem is presented．Finally．an example is introduced to illustrate the above results．

Abstract:Applying computable general equilibrium mod el and comparative static method，the effects on efconomic system of expanding social insurance coverage and gradually uniforming social insurance payroll tax rate are analyzed quantificationdly andwholly．Inthis veay．the effects on socialwelfare．on prod uetion．on the level and composition of final demand in production market．and on labor demand in labor market are analyzed．Then some advice is given on social insurance reform．

Abstract:In this paper we study the money supply effect to price level and economic growth． There are two targets for this research：one is to find the causal relationship among the money supply，price level and economic growth during the different period in China；the other is to calculate the optimal money supply growth rate by using of the dynamic programming method

Abstract:This paper proposed a framework of a multilevel processing model supporting manager′s decision based on the study of the characteristics of manager′s decision making routines. The fundamental techn ique u sed in the system is schema case based reason ing. The arch itectu re of the system and some typical application are also discussed.

Abstract:Effective management of the sources of new prod uct development(NPD)is crueial for improvement of companies product innovation abilities．In the paper，the high—tech companies in the Zhong Guancurt district of Beijing are selected for case studies．Through visiting，talking with the managers and questionnaire investigations，the authors investigated 37 high—tec h com panies and 1 foreign company on NPD and acquired much first—hand data．Based on these cases，the source of ideas for NPD have been analyzed and summarized comprehensively．At last，some concrete suggestious about how to improve the ablities for management innovation ideas have been put forward to serve as refrerences for the Chinese high—tech comparties in the future．

Abstract:Natural disaster is one of the important factors to affect the sustainable development of region e conomy．In this paper，the effect model of natural disaster is presented by using input—output and production function methods．Under the circumstance of damage to both labor force and short run fixed capital．the changes of region’S total output and final demand are analyzed to attain a target employment rate，and a case is studied．