Abstract:The excitation of brittleness is the key to overall managerial difficulties，and brittle risk control is the important leverage to improve the security of management system． Based on the path analysis of brittle risk spread in firm’s business system，the basic state-dependent model and modified control model considering growth rate and decline rate of business are put forward，and the effect of three strategies such as immunization，isolation and integrated control is evaluated and compared． In addition，the existence of periodic solutions of improved model and optimal cycle control strategy are discussed． The results show that different control strategies can provide the same results in terms of risk control． Under the same objective，the total cost of integrated control strategy is the lowest，while the total cost of immunization strategy and isolation strategy depends on the initial conditions and critical parameters． Moreover，the best option is to implement a cyclical comprehensive control strategy when none of the strategies can achieve the goal．

Abstract:In the past，the research of traffic information system is mainly carried out in static transportation networks，and the dynamic behavior of travelers under the guidance of real time traffic information is rarely studied． In this paper，the dynamic reaction of travelers and the non-equilibrium traffic evolution in transportation networks under the guidance of traffic information are studied，based on which the benefit of traffic information is evaluated． Firstly，we investigate three kinds of travel behaviors: simultaneous departure time and route choices of drivers in normal traffic condition，travel behavior of drivers without traffic information after a traffic accidents occurring，and travel behavior of drivers with real time traffic information guidance after a traf-fic accidents occurring． By comparing the total travel costs in the three situations，the change of the total travel cost or the benefit of traffic information can be calculated． It is found that traffic information system can miti-gate traffic congestion of networks substantially，if the traffic accident is severe and road capacity drops heavi-ly． However，if the traffic accident is light and road capacity drops slightly，providing traffic information will make transportation system worse off，and it will resut in the increase of total travel cost． This implies that traf-fic information is not always good to transportation system，and it should be provided cautiously．

Abstract:Container terminal is not only the area for storing inbound and outbound containers，but also the place for pickup． Because of the uncertainty of pickup time，terminal operators have to rehandle the containers frequently which incur significant cost to the operators． In order to reduce the cost in rehandling，a time window mechanism for container pickup was introduced． A function of the subsidies to the terminal operators and a function of rehandling costs to the consignees were constructed． Based on these functions，the distribution of pickup times and the formulation of rehandling times were derived． Then，the problem of optimal pickup time windows allocation was proposed and the model was constructed． Because of the high computational complexity，a genetic algorithm was developed． Finally，a numerical example was given in two different modes，and the sensitivity analysis was conducted． By applying the time windows allocation mechanism，the rehandling operations were greatly reduced，and both of the operational efficiency and the expected profits of the terminal operators were improved significantly．

Abstract:The paper focuses on consumers’online searching behavior and analyzes the factors that may influ-ence consumers’attention and click behaviors on the search results． These factors include consumers’motiva-tion of search，location of an item on the webpage，impact of nearby items，and the relevancy between search motivation and ad wording． In a survey which mimics the browsing of search results，we manipulated different scenarios and asked the participants which links they would like to click on． The empirical results support that these factors drive the effectiveness of Internet search engine，and by controlling and changing these factors， managers can do better in communicating marketing information．

Abstract:Based on the Merton’s jump diffusion model，two amendments are carried out． Firstly，the counting process ( Poisson process) will be amended by the renewal process with power-law nature． Secondly，the magnitude of the jump has also been given the characteristics of power-law nature． By empirical research，it is found that the model could accurately describe the process of the stock price movement，and get a yield with fat-tailed distribution and volatility clustering． As a basis，the model can be used to more accurately price fi-nancial derivatives products such as options，and also provide effective tools in financial risk management．

Abstract:Based on the realized volatility measurement，we investigate the jumps of stock price in the Chinese stock markets using Z-statistics by BN-S approach． The results show the ubiquity of jumps of stock price in the stock markets． Further more，we find that the jumps of individual stocks are mostly heterogeneous jumps rather than co-jumps which can be seen at the level of the stock index． These results indicate that the jumps of individual stocks tend to be influenced by stock-specific news while the influences generated by market-level news are very limited． Co-jumps of individual stocks are likely to be covered by heterogeneous jumps and market microstructure noise．

Abstract:This paper extend Jiang and Tian( 2005) model to the setting for put options，and obtain the expres-sions of the model-free implied volatility of call options and put option． And we further transform the theoreti-cal expressions to those which meet practical application needs． According to no-arbitrage principle，we construct calls and puts with different strike prices using the deposit and lending interest rates with various maturi-ties and then we acquire a series of calls and puts through cubic curve fitting method． Finally we work out the implied volatilities of five-year deposit and lending interest rates． Our results show that there exists a upward pressure in the interest rates of deposit and lending of China’s banks．

Abstract:Heath-Jarrow-Morton model is generalized by extending the no-arbitrage drift restriction with nonze-ro instantaneous correlations between volatility factors and setting forward rate volatilities subject to generalized mean-reverting square-root processes and correlated with innovations to forward rates． In the framework above， the dynamics of the term structure under the risk-neutral probability measure are described in terms of a finite number of state variables that jointly follow an affine diffusion process under a certain volatility specification， and a quasi-analytical formula for zero coupon bond prices is derived based on transform techniques． Then the result is further generalized to the case under the actual probability measure through the extended affine market price of risk specification．