Abstract:How a high level of cooperation emerges in human societies，especially large-scale societies，in spite of a low level of genetic relatedness among society members? In this paper，based on the N-player Iterated Prisoner’s Dilemma model，we offer a model of evolution of cooperation based on punishment using agentbased modeling approach． We introduce two different types of punishment strategies in our model． One is the strong cooperation strategy which means cooperating and punishing those defecting． The other is called the strong defection strategy where one defects and punishes others who defect． Results of model simulation show that the strong cooperator will hinder cooperation in the macro level though it is good in the micro level，and the strong defection，a non-cooperation strategy indeed，may facilitate social cooperation even in a large-scale society，because when those agents who are strong defectors are conditionally united or form in multiple unions，a cooperation-defection mixed-strategy equilibrium will emerge，which means that there is a sub-optimal level of cooperation in social systems though not an optimal one．

Abstract:This paper developed a China energy-economic-environmental policy model based on a dynamic CGE model，designed a carbon tax scenario，a cap-and-trade scenario and a policy mix scenario，and simulated the economic and mitigation effects under different scenarios． The results show that only carbon tax policy cannot realize the 2020 mitigation target． Only cap-and-trade will cause high mitigation costs and tremendous mitigation pressure to regulated sectors． Combination of cap-and-trade with a low carbon tax can realize the 2020 mitigation target with modest mitigation costs and mitigation pressures for regulated sectors． Meanwhile， the dispersed emitter will also bear mitigation commitments at a certain extent． The results of this paper suggest a mixed policy combining cap-and-trade with a low carbon tax as the first choice for carbon mitigation policy in China．

Abstract:Housing price and its regulation are hot issues in China’s economy and society at present． However，little literature in the comprehensive study of such issue is seen either in China and abroad． Based on whether the“Quantity Limitation Protocol”takes effect，this paper builds two general equilibrium models in the housing market． The results show that，on the one hand，when the quantity limit is not effective，and when other things equal，the harsh policy on housing mortgage tends to decrease the market equilibrium housing price (some other conditions must be met as well) if the economy of scale is decreasing or constant in the composite good sector． On the other hand，when the quantity limit is effective，both the down payment ratio and the quantity limit would affect the equilibrium housing price in the market in a complex manner． Only when the down payment ratio is not too large and the economy of scale is increasing in the composite good sector，can the real estate regulatory policies effectively decrease the market equilibrium housing price when the down payment ratio falls into a particular region．

Abstract:An important feature of mature markets is the diffusion between the competitive products． Network effect changes the traditional diffusion pattern，and has an important impact on individual choice behaviors． Previous studies focus on the rate and degree of diffusion at the level of aggregation，ignoring the social interactions and characteristics at the level of individuals． Based on the network effect，this paper discusses competitive product diffusion from the individual perspective． Firstly，a direct network effect function based on the social interactions is constructed，and an indirect network effect function is developed which reflects the cooperative effect of multiple complementary products． Secondly，individuals calculate their own profit at the current time and their expected profit at the next time． At last，they choose the right product for the next time according to decision-making mechanism of expected socialized benefit satisfaction． Simulations are used to study the diffusion system，and the result demonstrates that: the direct network effect and indirect network effect have distinct roles at different stages; the small world network is the optimum condition for competitive product diffusions; individual number distribution，personal preferences and individuals’judgment to the market have significant effects on diffusion．

Abstract:Accurate forecast is helpful for the enterprises to make decisions，including the production plan， the pricing and promotion decisions，etc． ，so as to reduce the inventory cost and improve the service qualities． In this paper，by analyzing the factors influencing the demand for fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) ， a synthesized forecasting model，which involves both the time series and the multi-regression methods，is established． The synthesized forecasting model is further integrated with the inventory decision，with the purpose of minimizing the overall logistics costs． To solve the integrated model where multiple parameters are involved， a variable neighborhood search (VNS) based algorithm is developed． To evaluate both the synthesized forecasting model and the integrated model of demand forecasting and inventory decision，computational studies are conducted based on some real data． The computational results show an outperformance of the synthesized forecasting model regarding forecasting accuracy，and an outperformance of the integrated model of demand forecasting and inventory decision when the logistics costs are minimized．

Abstract:Existing researches always omit the input resource diversity in the collaborative new product development investments． This article，by taking both the input of capital and knowledge into consideration，discusses the participants’optimal investment decisions． We build a Stackelberg model and discusses the leader and the follower’s investment decisions when the input only contains capital and when the imputs also contain both capital and knowledge respectively． Then the paper compares the similarities and differences between the partners investment decisions in the two cases． We found that with different resources inputs，cooperations need different conditions，namely，only when the leader’s earnings proportion is greater than the follower’s，is it possible to consider inputting both capital and knowledge; the level of knowledge spillovers，which can stimulate the success of cooperative development，can be improved by changing the amount of capital investment， knowledge inputs and R＆D effort extent．

Abstract:With the boost of online reviews，sentiment polarity classification rises in response to the requirement of retrieving consumers＇ positive or negative opinions on certain products． The primary goal of this research is to improve the accuracy of sentiment polarity classification at the level of paragraphs for Chinese online reviews． With a view to the ways of expression and the grain of corpus，this paper presents a method to predict the sentiment polarity of Chinese online reviews in paragraphs based on sentence level sentiment analysis． Firstly，traditional classification methods are applied to predict the sentiment polarity of sentence． Then， three different algorithms i．e．，the equal weight，correlation degree and assumption of sentiment condition， are employed to calculate the contribution that each sentence lying in the different positions of paragraph makes to the sentiment polarity of paragraph． Finally an experiment has been made based on hotel and mobile phone online reviews with lengths beyond two sentences． The result shows that the accuracy of sentiment polarity classification at the level of paragraph is remarkably increased by the method proposed in this paper，by taking correlation degree of expression and assumption of sentiment condition into consideration．

Abstract:Aiming at the deficiency of practical quantitative evaluation models and methodologies for usability design of webpage layout，this paper applies eye-tracking method to model network users’browsing behavior on web pages as the points randomly walking on empowering finite graphs based on scanning paths theory． A novel and practical method for usability evaluation of web page layout (WLUE-RWG) is proposed． Finally， two product display pages，namely，mall． taobao． com and china． alibaba． com，are used as examples to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of our method．

Abstract:For financial volatility modeling，most of the studies use returns as proxies of volatility，whereas very few are devoted to volatility methods based on range，which is a more efficient proxy． Taking the advantages of stochastic volatility method into consideration，this paper introduces the regime shifts of volatility levels into the range based stochastic volatility model to capture possible structural changes in volatility levels in financial markets． Afterwards，this paper describes the MCMC algorithm to estimate the model and demonstrates its efficiency through a simulation． In the empirical part，based on the range data of Shanghai Composite Index，Shenzhen Component Index and China Securities Index 300，the RMSSV model is estimated． Using the realized volatility as the benchmark and robust loss function as the criterion，the relative advantage of the RMSSV model in comparison with several popular models in GARCH and SV families is demonstrated．