CHEN Chuang , WU Xiao-hui , WEI Fang
2016, 19(5):1-13.
Abstract:Agency theory argues that managers should be given more equity ownership to mitigate their risk aversion.However,the upper echelons theory suggests that the demographic characteristics and the cognition of the corporate decision-making team would affect the risk taking. This paper provides a sophisticated risk taking model by incorporating agency theory and upper echelons literature. Authors empirical analysis is based on data from Chinese firms listed on the SME Board and ChiNext Board of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. Specifically,the paper tenure heterogeneity will suppress risk taking and functional heterogeneity will promote enterprise risk taking. What’s more,contrary to agency theory,the paper that the increase in the proportion of managerial ownership will reduce risk taking. A higher managerial ownership will weaken the positive relationship between the functions heterogeneity and risk taking.
SHI Shu-de , ZHANG Wei , GAO Jian
2016, 19(5):14-27.
Abstract:Existing literatureson entrepreneurship mainly study entrepreneurial team’s composition,the cooperation process of team members and their impact on the performance. However,high uncertainties in new venture teams’cooperation make the governance of entrepreneurial teams extraordinarily important. This paper studies entrepreneurial team from the new perspective of governance. It proposed a theoretical framework of formal and informal governance mechanisms in the entrepreneurial team. Based on the survey data,it empirically studies the relationship between governance mechanisms and team performance,First,it proves the framework of formal and informal governance mechanisms. Second,the impact of the formal contract is found to vary in different firm stages; During the first two years,the formal contract has a weak effect on entrepreneurial team performance,while after two years its effect become significant. Third,the existing of majority ownership /absolute controlling stake in the entrepreneurial team can significantly improve team performance in the first two years,while its effect becomes insignificant after the two years. Fourth,constructive controversy in entrepreneurial team can also improve team performance. Finally,these conclusions are analyzed and the implications are discussed.
SHI Yan , XIE Fu-ji , LIU Lang
2016, 19(5):28-40.
Abstract:Technology auction in practice often adopts the mode of fixed fee ( English) auction,where its price is irrelevant to output. In order to connect technology price with its output,the paper puts forward a two traffic auction mechanism. That is,the winner’s payment consists of a fixed fee and a royalty. At first,English auction is analyzed as a benchmark. Then,an optimal technology auction mechanism of symmetric independent private valueis studied,in which each firm reports its cost. It is found that the winner is the buyer with the lowest cost,fixed fee and royalty of technology price are determined by the firms’reported cost,and a reserve price is not needed. Two-traffic auctions lead to higher expected revenues for the seller,and a higher auction rate.
2016, 19(5):41-55.
Abstract:Taking 917 IPO firms from the year 2006 to 2011 as the sample,this paper analyzes how investor sentiment affects stock pricing. Our findings are: 1) both market sentiment and firm specific sentiment significantly affect IPO overvaluation. Specifically,IPO overvaluation is 36% larger in higher groups than lower groups of market sentiment (63% vs 27%) ,and IPO overvaluation is 24% larger in stocks with a higher firm specific sentiment than a lower firm specific sentiment(56% vs 32%) . 2) The higher the value uncertainty of IPO firms,the larger the effects of investor sentiment on IPO premium; while the higher the speculative risk,the smaller the effects of investor sentiment on IPO premium. 3) With higher IPO premiums,stock prices will reverse gradually after the IPO.
ZHANG Xiao-tao , PAN Qi , LI Yue-lei
2016, 19(5):56-67.
Abstract:The curvature parameters and coefficient of loss aversion utility function proposed in prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky are researched by means of asset allocation under a single period economic system with aloss aversion investor. This article proved that the curvature parameters,α,β,should be not equal and have a relationship of β-α > 0 and that the loss aversion coefficient,λ,is not a constant and changes with market environments. The ratio of risk assets varies with the difference of β,α and increases with the difference.These theoretical analyses are tested with data from China’s stock market; the empirical result is consistent with the theoretical analysis. An interest finding is that the lower bound of loss aversion coefficient of China’s stock market is far less than that of developed counties.
2016, 19(5):68-86.
Abstract:This paper empirically examines the pricing errors of Chinese put warrants,and finds that put warrants are systematically overvalued. Using high frequency data,the paper in vestigates the reasons of systematic over valuation according to prospect theory and resell option theory. The results show that the speculation behavior of individual investors caused by short selling constrain and heterogeneous belief is one of the most important reasons leading to the overvaluation of put warrants. However,the weakness of Chinese warrants’issuing mechanism also plays a very important role in explaining the overvaluation of put warrants. The issue cost,which can be regarded as the reference price of issuers,has significant effects on the market price of put warrants,and can well explain both the levels and variations of the pricing errors of put warrants. The mechanism that only a few qualified security companies are permitted to create warrants and the fact that the exercise prices of newly issued warrants cannot be adjusted according to underlying stock prices make put warrants an instrument of speculation. In sum,the synergism of speculation behaviors and the weakness of the issuing mechanism lead to persistent systematic over valuation of put warrants.
LIN Yu , HUANG Xun , CHUN Wei-de , HUANG Deng-shi
2016, 19(5):87-101.
Abstract:Synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) has the problem of over fitting in improving the imbalanced samples’learning ability of support vector machine (SVM) . In this paper,adaptive synthetic sampling approach (ADASYN) and optimization of decreasing reduction approach (ODR) are assembled into an ODR-ADASYN to overcome the blindness in generating new samples and the limitations in processing the object. Combining SVM with ODR-ADASYN,an improved SVM,named ODR-ADASYN-SVM,is put forward to predict extremely financial risks; T-test is also applied to the significance test of the difference of the prediction accuracy of all models and to the evaluation of the prediction stability of all models. The result illustrates that the ODR-ADASYN-SVM can not only significantly improve the imbalanced samples’learning ability of SVM,but also overcome the problem of over fitting for SMOTE effectively. Hence,the ODR-ADASYN-SVM has a superior ability to predict extremely financial risks.
2016, 19(5):102-113+126.
Abstract:The paper derives and tests the relationship between current-period unexpected returns and unexpected earnings that incorporates cashflow news and cashflow risk. A new multi-variable model based on a three-variable model is established to explain the unexpected individual stock returns. The paper estimates the model using data for individual stocks in China’s market from 2002 to 2011. The main findings are: (i) The result of the cashflow news derived by revisions in forecasts of future earnings is an important determinant of cross-sectional unexpected stock returns and realized stock returns and excess stock returns; (ⅱ) The cashflow risk thus derived to reflect systematic risk can explain expected stock returns; (ⅲ) The new multi-variable model based on the three-variable of model and considering cashflow news and cashflow risk dominates the multi-variable model based based on the three-factor model Fama-French and considering cashflow news and cashflow risk in explaining excess stock returns.
HUANG Jin-bo , LI Zhong-fei , YAO Hai-xiang
2016, 19(5):114-126.
Abstract:The paper first applies nonparametric kernel estimation method to estimating CVaR which is currently a popular risk measurement tool,then derives a two-step kernel estimator of CVaR with distribution-free specification. Next,a two-step kernel estimator of CVaR is embed into the mean-CVaR portfolio optimization models to derive financial risk estimation and portfolio optimization at the same time. A simple iterative algorithm is designed to solve these models. Monte Carlo simulation result shows that the portfolio optimization models and the algorithm based on the two-step kernel estimator of CVaR is feasible and effective,and that the estimated error of portfolio frontier is very small. The models and algorithm above apply to a risk-free security.Finally,an empirical analysis of daily return data from Chinese A-stock market is presented to illustrate the application of this research.