Abstract:Technological progress promote the entering speed of new products into a market． In order to occu-py the market by more efficient upgrading of products，companies often choose to launch new generation prod-ucts． As the enterprises continuously introduce new generation products，new and old products will coexist for some time in a duopoly market． The paper studies the optimal timing of the improved new product and the price adjustment of old products after the introduction of the improved new product，and analyzes the relation-ship between the optimal time-to-market or the price adjustment of the old product and the coefficient of inno-vation or pricing． The result shows that: the greater the market potential of the old product and the higher the technical level，the later the optimal time-to-market of the improved new product; the higher the technical lev-el of the improved new product，the earlier the optimal time-to-market of the improved new product; the price and technology level of the product in the competitive enterprise has a negative effect on the optimal time-to-market of the improved new product; the price and technology level of the improved new product or the product in the competitive enterprise has a negative effect on the price adjustment of old products．

Abstract:: Supply chain coordination is the fundamental means to improve the supply chain’s overall profits and the interests of all parties． The goal of this paper is to investigate the coordination strategy of dual channel supply chains in which a manufacturer has diseconomies of scale of production． The paper shows the market prices and overall profit of dual channel supply chains in centralized decision-making and the design method of wholesale price contract and revenue sharing contract in decentralized decision-making． The concept of coordi-nation degree is proposed，which represents the degree a contract coordinates the supply chain． It is proved that if the coordination degree of wholesale price contract is less than 1，coordinating of the supply chain can-not be achieved，and that if the coordination degree of the revenue-sharing contract is equal to 1，relative to the wholesale price contract，the revenue sharing contract cannot improve the profits of retailers and manufac-turers，resulting in an unenforced able revenue sharing contract． In order to find the enforceable coordination strategy of the dual channel supply chain，the paper puts forward the design method of the revenue-sharing contract with fixed compensation which is determined by Nash bargaining negotiation model． The results show that the coordination degree of the contract is equal to 1，and that，compared with the wholesale price con-tract，the contract can also improve the retailer’s and the manufacturer’s profit． In addition，the study also shows that: the diseconomies of scale elasticity coefficient is proportional to the sales price and inversely pro-portional to the overall profit of the supply chain; the more intense the competition between different channels，the higher the selling prices，the demand，and the earnings of the dual channel supply chain． Furthermore， the revenue sharing contract with fixed compensation can also coordinate the dual channel supply chain with linear costs． Finally，the correctness and effectiveness of the conclusion are validated by numerical examples．

Abstract:In a two-stage system with the two stages connected in series，fairly setting the target outputs for the first stage，which are also the inputs for the second stage，is critical for ensuring that the two stages have in-centives to collaborate with each other so as to achieve the best performance． Data envelopment analysis( DEA) ，which is a non-parameter approach for performance evaluation of decision making units ( DMUs) ， has drawn a lot of attention from many scholars． In this paper，a new two-stage DEA model taking account of fairness is proposed to set the target intermediate products in a two-stage system． We find that the optimal re-sults of this model are exactly the Nash solution of a Nash bargaining game．

Abstract:In the paper，distribution center location planning is studied，with the goal of minimizing the total cost of the logistics system． The government determines the distribution center location plan． The clients choose appropriate suppliers and travel routes to minimize the total cost，given the distribution center plan and traffic flow conditions． A bi-level programming model is proposed to minimize the total cost of the logistics sys-tem，considering user’s equilibrium and investment constraints． The upper level program aims at minimizing the total cost of the logistics system，and the lower level program describes a Logit-based stochastic user equi-librium． The lower level problem is then transferred into an equivalent convex programming model． An algo-rithm is developed to solve the bi-level model，and is demonstrated by a numerical example．

Abstract:The adaptive agents of social systems，emergence of their structures and diversity of their evolution paths make their scenario research necessary． Firstly，based on the views of complex science，this paper de-fines the profound connotation of scenarios in social systems． Then，a three-layer structure model of computa-bility of scenarios is analyzed in a social system． Thirdly，multivariate models of computable scenarios are built from three stages: actual scenarios to concept scenarios，concept scenarios to structured scenarios，and struc-tured scenarios to computer implementation． Lastly，In a typical complex system of asocial system-the Taihu lake basin，a scheme on computable and approximate scenarios of the system is proposed according to the re-search idea of the “top-down”and “bottom-up”． The impacts of different government preferences on the sce-narios evolution of the system are analyzed． This paper might provide new theoretical elements and methodolo-gy guidance for researches on social systems．

Abstract:Social networks constitute the backbone of information transmission in social media platforms， where link prediction will contribute to managing information diffusion and controlling public opinion． Based on the existing studies in the field of link prediction，this paper starts from the theoretical foundation of deci-sion analysis and presents a novel link prediction method by introducing the utility analysis． In order to solve the problem of parameter estimation，this paper further develops a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method with er-ror degrees and demonstrates its correctness． Based on the selected information from five QQ groups，a com-parison between the proposed method and the classic ones is carried out in terms of the prediction accuracy． The results indicate that the proposed method enjoys satisfactory prediction accuracy because the individual be-havior is considered in this method，and particularly the introduced error degrees would benefit the potential model users in making reasonable decisions by weighing the model’s efficiency and accuracy．

Abstract:Correlations，nonlinearity and adaptability have been presented by empirical studies during the de-velopment process of China’s financial markets． This paper mainly investigates a complex system consisting of the money market，the securities market and the foreign exchange market． It aims at characterizing the evolu-tion mechanisms regarding the structure，action and function of the system and thus managing the complexity． This paper not only illustrates the relationships between those mechanisms and the systemic characteristics of complexity，but also builds a generic framework of models and applies it to the financial bubbles of stock mar-kets． The three-body“bondage”model capturing the correlations is proposed to describe the complex relation-ships between the sub-markets． A nonlinear dynamics model based on the Langevin equation divides the non-linear actions into endogenous and exogenous ones． The feedback model describes the evolutionary paths and the dynamic adaptive ability in the realization of market functions． Combining the resulting spatio-temporal structure of China’s financial markets，a macro management framework coping with complexity is finally built in terms of the environment，composition，association，evolution，stability，and risk management．

Abstract:Most recent conditional asset pricing models are evaluated by the static Fama-MacBeth cross-sec-tional regressions，therefore the time-varying risk cannot be evaluated by constant risk loading and risk premi-ums． This paper，from the economic perspectives，applies a brand-new method—The dynamic cross-sectional regression—To investigate the performances of conditional asset pricing models: whether the time-varying re-turns can be explained by the time-varying risk premiums． Theoretically，this paper evidences that returns on assets depend on the linear risk premium function and innovations of the economy． Empirically，the paper tests the conditional asset pricing models’pricing performances based on Chinese and US stock markets． The paper finds that the short-term reversal rate and the turnover rate as the conditional variables can help CAPM and CCAPM to explain several test assets’time-varying returns． Moreover，this paper also tests the classic con-ditional asset pricing models in explaining different assets’time-varying returns． The paper finds that the persis-tent and slow-moving conditional variables can be better candidates for our conditional asset pricing models.

Abstract:Model Specification Test is a key step in financial modeling to reduce the model risk． Based on the first HJ distance proposed by Hansen and Jagannthan( 1997) ，Taiwan market data are used to test the model specifications of eight linear factor models ( including models based on financial asset prices) ，and the impacts of model specification assumptions on parameter tests are discussed． The paper finds that，under the 5% sig-nificance level，there exists model misspecification problems for all unconditional models and only the condi-tional versions of FF3，LM，VanM and SkewM are acceptable right models． Meanwhile，taking potential mod-el misspecification into account may detect the factors’pricing ability more efficiently． Assuming a model is rightly specified overestimates the t absolute values of SDF parameters，resulting in a“pseudo-pricing”for some parts of the factors．