LUO Su-mei , ZHOU Guang-you , ZENG Yao
2017, 20(12):1-18.
Abstract:This paper is based on the perspective of financial security and national interests. Firstly,according to the theory of foreign exchange reserves demand,foreign exchange reserves are divided into financial security reserves and national interest reserves. Secondly,the paper introduces the safety first criterion and constructs the foreign exchange reserve optimization model based on the financial security. Thirdly,by calculating the theoretical model and numerical simulation,the financial security scale and the national interest scale of the foreign exchange reserves are calculated,and the allocation of the foreign exchange reserves is optimized. The paper shows that China can use about 65% of its foreign exchange reserves to meet the financial security, while the remaining 35% can be used to achieve national interests. This paper agrees that foreign exchange reserves, as the national financial assets,should be mainly used to safeguard national financial security and achieve national strategic interests and economic interests. By docking“The Belt and Road”strategy,foreign exchange reserves can support the internationalization of the RMB and the enterprises to“go out”,as well as the promotion of foreign direct investment and national strategy,to achieve the maximization of national interests. At the same time,excessive foreign exchange reserves can be reduced automatically. Therefore,in the current foreign exchange reserves management,the scale of the foreign exchange reserves is not the focus of discussion. The management departments should not actively curb the growth of foreign exchange reserves,butshould pay more attention to how to improve their efficiency.
HUANG Nai-jing , ZHANG Bing-jie , GUO Dong-mei , WANG Shou-yang
2017, 20(12):19-28+86.
Abstract:This paper uses a new financial contagion test statistic to examine the existence of contagion effects across different industries in the Chinese stock market collapse in June 2015. Compared with the correlation-based tests,it allows us to investigate the stock market contagion at various quantiles; and compared with the standard quantile regression test statistic,it has the advantage of being robust to the model misspecification. In this paper,the contagion effects are first examined over ten primary industries and four sub-industries of the financial sector,and then the possible transmission mechanisms are analyzed across different industries. Empirical results show that the new financial contagion test detects the contagion effects at lower quantiles across different industries,which is sometimes ignored by the correlation-based test and is of importance for the systemic risk control.
HE Zhi-fang , WEN Feng-hua , HUANG Chuang-xia , YANG Xiao-guang , ZHENG Shi-ming
2017, 20(12):29-38.
Abstract:The coefficient of risk compensation shows the compensation required by investors for taking each unit of risk,which also reflects the tradeoff between risk and return. Using data in the US stock market,this paper firstly builds a TVA-GARCH-M model to analyze the time-varying characteristics of investors’risk compensation coefficient. Then the relationship between the aggregate investor sentiment and the time-varying risk compensation coefficient in US stock market are investigated by using the granger causality test and the linear regression model. The results show that the coefficient of investors’risk compensation changes over time,and it is negatively related to aggregate investor sentiment. What’s more,the aggregate investor sentiment has a negative effect on the time-varying risk compensation coefficient. Particularly,investors with optimism sentiment will decrease their time-varying risk compensation coefficient while investors with pessimism sentiment will make their time-varying risk compensation coefficient increase.
CHEN Chong-ping , CHEN Zhi-xiang , SHAO Xiao
2017, 20(12):39-51.
Abstract:Considering the uncertainty in supply and demand,as well as the quality differences of purchased products from two suppliers,this paper investigates dual-sourcing decisions with defect improvement investment in suppliers’product. In this paper,a high quality ( low defect rate) supplier is set as a benchmark for quality defect improvement,and the manufacturer decides the purchasing policies based on two scenarios: ( 1) purchasing after defect improvement,( 2) simultaneously purchasing and investing in defect improvement. The differences of the two scenarios are compared. The impacts of success rate of quality defect improvement investments on the order quantities and the profit of the manufacturer are analyzed. The results indicate that when the success rate is less than 1,the profit of the manufacturer in the first scenario ( purchasing after defect improvement) is higher than that in the second scenario ( simultaneously purchasing and investing in defect improvement) . When the success rate is equal to 1,there is no difference in the manufacturer’s profits in the two scenarios.
2017, 20(12):52-71.
Abstract:The mitigation tournament game under heterogeneous generators competition in electricity markets is studied by using behavioral economics. The equilibrium marginal probabilities of winning and the optimal mitigation efforts in different market and bonus structures are discussed successively. Theoretical models are experimentally tested from the perspective of experimental economics and the models are extended to tournament models of mitigation considering non-pecuniary factors such as social comparison which also affects a generator’s mitigation decision. The optimal parameter estimations and equilibrium predictive values of generalized models are given. The results gained through comparative analysis indicate that increasing the number of winning prizes,regardless of the generation subject compositions,neither drives superiors to raise nor forces the vulnerable to decrease respective mitigation quantities in a tournament with three or four participants. No matter what the initial dispatching endowments are,all generators present overinvestment behaviors as long as the experiment information is completely public. Contrary to the standard theory predictions,the levels of the latter’s mitigation efforts are positively correlated with number of winners when a single vulnerable and double superior generators compete. The parameter constraints reduce the fitness of the behavioral economics model significantly and the equilibrium prediction of generalized model fits the basic features of test experiment best in contrast with the specific nested model which verifies the feasibility of the theoretical predictions.
LIU Wen-bo , SUN De-feng , TANG Li-xin
2017, 20(12):72-86.
Abstract:Open pit mine production scheduling is to specify the sequence of blocks extraction from the mine so as to obtain the highest NPV satisfying a variety of physical and economical constraints. According to production characteristics in practice,the evaluation of regularity is taken into consideration,and then an integer programming model is established. Lagrangian Relaxation ( LR) method is proposed to solve the problem.Valid inequalities are established based on the knapsack structure of priority constraints to accelerate the algorithm without hurting the optimal solution; and then fast feasible solution strategy is constructed based on Directed Acyclic Graph structure; variable reductions are carried out to reduce the problem scale through strategies of earliest start time and latest start time. Computational results indicate that the proposed approach outperforms standard solver CPLEX in computational time. The proposed model and solution can realize the goal of regularity maintaining and profit maximizing while satisfying all production constraints
ZHOU Yong-sheng , LIANG Shu-hui , LIU Shu-qin , WANG Jue
2017, 20(12):87-98.
Abstract:Green credit and green supply chain are significant measures for banks and enterprises to deal with the increasingly serious ecological environment. Supervision and guidance by governments are the prerequisites to the smooth implementation of green credit and green supply chain. This paper analyses the evolutionary stable strategy of three parties,including the governments,banks and enterprises,by establishing an Asymmetric Evolutionary Game Model,assuming that the governments take rewards and punishments policy both for banks and enterprises. The results show that whichever strategy the government chooses,there is always one party choosing non-implementation of the green credit or non-adoption of green supply chain strategy. From a shortterm perspective,whichever strategy the government chooses,the banks and enterprises will select the strategy of non-implementation and non-adoption respectively. From the long-term perspective,the banks and enterprises will take the initiative to choose implementation and adoption actively in the absence of the government's regulation.
2017, 20(12):99-116.
Abstract:From the perspective of fairness,this paper studies the influence of income and social status on the happiness of Chinese people. A theoretical model is first established to make the analysis and then an empirical study is made using the data of China Labor-force Dynamics Survey of ( CLDS) 2012 and 2014. This study shows that: 1) generally speaking,income has a positive effect on happiness,but the sensitivity of the income to happiness decreases with income; 2) social status is an important factor influencing happiness,and its contribution to happiness in China exceeds that of income,and the influence of social status on happiness increases with income; 3) the effect of fairness perception on happiness is becoming more and more important,and even shows greater effect than that of income and that of social status. Collectively,this paper gives a reasonable explanation of this phenomenon and some proposals to speed up the construction of social fairness and justice systems in China.
XIAO Bin-qing , LI Xin-dan , XU Yu-qian , CHEN Yuan-qiao
2017, 20(12):117-123.
Abstract:This paper focuses on the risk chain of“illegal activity - operational risk - credit risk”which has not been paid enough attention to by risk management literatures. As the most basic type of risk among all types of risk under Basel Commit’s framework,compliance risk and operational risk need to be managed effectively to lay the foundation to control other types of risk. However,the theoretical research on these two types of risk cannot be deepened due to the lack of data support. By constructing a correlation model containing a“risk-activity-event-control-case”structure,the cause and loss database is established for compliance and operational risk,and the risk transference along the risk chain is studied preliminarily. The paper mainly discusses the following topics: ( 1) factors of compliance and operational risk,( 2) the ways to improve compliance and operational risk management through business process reengineering,( 3) operation risk quantification modeling based on process. According to real world practice,a trinity system made up of theoretical research,IT systems and guarantee mechanisms is put forward. Years of practice has proved that this trinity systemcan serve as an important guidance for financial institutions to manage compliance and operational risk.