Abstract:This paper proposes a scenario-based analysis and solutions for the liquidity stampede crisis in Chi-nese stock markets in 2015． The agent-based model simulates the realistic features of this liquidity stampede crisis，including monotonous downfall of prices，illiquidity contagion，liquidity dry-up of the whole market， and a slow recovery due to the permanent price impact of the liquidity crisis． More importantly，simulations show that a few margin purchases with high-leverages can cause the liquidity stampede crisis． When irrational investors employ chartist strategies to forecast prices and use the adaptive switching model for portfolio manage-ment，the high leverage will stimulate bubbles and crashes and generate illiquidity contagion，which leads to chain reactions of mandatory liquidation． Moreover，the transaction mechanism with continuous double auction and price limit aggravates the liquidity stampede crisis． Based on a scenario-based analysis，three effective so-lutions，namely，maintaining a low leverage，introducing temporary market makers to support emergency liq-uidity，and using the block trading system to buy the mandatory liquidation positions，are proposed．

Abstract:Considering three factors: uninformed traders’expectation to the asset value，uninformed traders’pri-vate valuation，and the volatility of the asset value，the paper models the dynamic price formation in an order-driv-en market with asymmetric information． A closed-form solution is presented to describe the order placement strate-gies of uninformed traders so as to depict the dynamic process how the uninformed traders update their expectation of the asset value． Our results show that the private valuation and the volatility of the asset values affect the unin-formed traders’optimal strategies，leading to market converges to different equilibria． In each equilibrium state， uninformed traders update their strategies according to their expectations of the asset value，resulting in the change of informed traders’strategies． Specifically，there is a possible state in which the informed traders are crowded out of the market． Furthermore，the differences in the execution risk of limit orders in each equilibrium play an impor-tant role in the effects of private valuation，volatility of the asset value，and the ratio of informed traders on market liquidity．

Abstract:This paper develops an efficient simulation method to calculate credit portfolio risks when the risk factors have heavy-tailed distributions． In modeling heavy tails，the features of return on the underlying assets are captured by multivariate t-copula． Moreover，a three-step importance sampling ( IS) technique is devel-oped in the t-copula credit portfolio risk measure model for further variance reduction． This broadens and enri-ches credit portfolio risk measure models． Simultaneously，the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm associated with nonlinear optimal technique is applied to estimate the mean-shift vector of the systematic risk factors after the probability measure changes． Numerical results show that IS technique based on t-copula is more efficient and accurate than plain Monte Carlo simulation in calculating the tail probability of distribution of portfolio loss ( or VaＲ of credit portfolio risk under a given confidence level) and that the IS technique can decrease the vari-ance of estimation on the tail probability to a great degree．

Abstract:The paper extends the classical Merton model by incorporating the agent’s over-extrapolation bias to investigate its effects on investment，consumption decisions and the corresponding welfare． By using the standard dynamic programming and controlling method，and Kalman filtering，the semi-closed form solutions are obtained for the scaled certainty equivalent wealth，the financial investment，and the consumption strate-gies based on the CＲＲA utility function． The numerical analysis with calibrated parameters shows that over-ex-trapolation will induce under-investment and over-consumption and increase the marginal propensity to con-sume significantly． Finally，the theoretical model predicts that 10% of the over-extrapolation bias will result in a 30% loss of welfare．

Abstract:The research on Ｒ2 has grown fast in the past decades． Ｒ2 has evolved from a purely econometric symbol to a variable of stock price synchronicity，and is linked to firm-specific information content． Scholars explore the causes，consequences，and the generating mechanism behind the Ｒ2 from the law and finance the-ory，principal-agent theory，asymmetric information theory，corporate governance theory，and many other per-spectives． The paper first reviews the causality association between asset pricing model，Ｒ2 ，and the stock price synchronicity，and then presents the findings on the causes and consequences of Ｒ2 ． After that the paper discusses the academic debate on Ｒ2 ． Based on the above，this paper looks forward to the future researches from the two aspects: the source of Ｒ2 ，and the potential effects of culture and politics on Ｒ2 ．

Abstract:Using order imbalances as a measure of investor trading behavior based on intraday transaction da-ta，this paper empirically investigates institutional investors’immediate reaction to accrual information and its impact on stock prices． The results show institutional investors trade in an accrual-contrarian fashion: they buy low-accrual firms and sell high-accrual firms only when the previously-announced earnings signal is positive． When accrual-contrarian trading exhibited by institutions is intense，the accrual predicts negative short-term stock returns but positive long-term returns． In other words，the stock price experiences a long-term reversal after the earnings announcement． Further investigation suggests the positive predictability of accrual on stock price in the long run cannot be fully explained by risk-based asset pricing models． These results indicate insti-tutional investor’s reaction to accrual information generates a mispricing of accruals induced by market overre-action．

Abstract:In this paper，we study how the bus companies to provide real-time bus station information service will influence the passenger travel behavior，and do game research about whether the company will provide the information to the passenger under the four difference situations． This finding will help in designing the trans-portation management policies． The model assumes that users can come to the bus stop or rail station at ran-dom or they can plan their trips． The fraction of users who plan their trips depends on the frequency of service and on the quality of information provided． Based on the analysis the cost of travel，we got the equilibrium of system in the case of fixed demand． Also compares the bus frequency，the number of planning passenger，and the company net profit under different strategies． A numerical example is presented to verify the theoretical re-sults ，which are consistent with classical economics theory． The finding can be helpful the transportation man-agement policies．

Abstract:An effective strategy is proposed to solve the dilemma of second resource conflicts in the critical chain method ( CCM) from a novel perspective of robust optimization． Firstly，this dilemma is mathematically expressed to gain a quantitative model，and the logic of the dilemma resulted from insertions of feeding buffers is explored． Then scenario analysis is adopted and four basic components are decomposed from the complex conflict phenomena． Secondly，based on robust scheduling optimization，some effective policies are investiga-ted and classified for all sub-problems of conflict situations，and a local rescheduling strategy is developed．Moreover，a robust index is designed based on the strategy，which combines the two scheduling progresses with dynamic consumptions of two kinds of buffers． The optimal schedule is an output when maximizing the ro-bust index． Extensive numerical experiments and three performance indicators are constructed，which include the realized probability that a project finishes on schedule，the sum of the absolute deviations between the ac-tual and the planned activity starting times and the variance of the absolute deviations for activity starting times． Extensive numerical experiments are also performed on the set of instances randomly generated by Pro-gen． The experimental results show the values of three statistical indicators under the schedule of the robust CCM are better than those under the schedule of the traditional CCM． Finally，the conclusions indicate that the strategy to deal with the second resource conflicts and the robust measure exhibits good stable effects during project implementation．

Abstract:With more and more companies beginning to carry out autonomous trade-in strategy，this paper builds strategy models from the viewpoint of supply chain based upon the market segmentation and consumer u-tility． The models are used to study the selection of autonomous trade-in strategy and corresponding supply chain decision-making problems． The study focuses on analyzing the impact of market segmentation and prod-uct depreciation on strategy selection，decision making，and supply chain efficiency． It is found that the strat-egy selection of the retailer depends on the proportion of the external customers and the degree of the product depreciation in addition to the manufacturing cost． When the proportion of old customers and the degree of the products depreciation fall into a certain region，the autonomous trade-in strategy works better than either non-trade-in strategies． In some cases，the manufacturer’s expectation strategy runs in contrast to the retailer’s optimal strategy． Supply chain efficiency is impacted by the proportion of customers and the product deprecia-tion． In addition，when the proportion of old customers or the product depreciation is above a certain thresh-old，the old customers make more contributions to the main bodies’profit than new customers． The research provides certain theoretical guidance for companies implementing the trade-in policy in the supply chain envi-ronment．

Abstract:Many studies investigate the traditional bullwhip effect from the viewpoint of the upstream inventory plan． However，this paper studies the inventory bullwhip effect from the supply chain downstream perspective and derives new managerial implications． More practical factors，such as market scale，price sensitivity coeffi-cient，etc． are modeled into the demand function． A simple supply chain including one retailer and one manu-facturer is constructed，who adopts the order-up-to policy and MMSE technique． There are two types of infor-mation sharing between the retailer and the manufacturer． The expressions of inventory bullwhip effects of the manufacturer with different types of information sharing are given，and the factors influencing bullwhip effects are analyzed． A numerical analysis is applied to test our model and some new findings are derived． The results indicate that: 1) information sharing can significantly reduce the manufacturer’s bullwhip effect of inventory， 2) neither the retailer’s bullwhip effect of inventory nor the manufacturer’s is influenced by the market scale， 3) the retailer’s bullwhip effect of inventory will not exist under some special conditions，4) compared with the retailer’s lead time，the manufacturer’s lead time affects the manufacturer’s bullwhip effect of inventory more dramatically，5) the price sensitivity coefficient and price correlation coefficient also have impacts on the bullwhip effect．

Abstract:Since the arrival of the Web2． 0 era，network media gradually dominates public opinion generation， dissemination and exchange． The evolution and alienation of public opinion crisis has become a serious social problem，which received increasing attention from social scientists and the general public． Therefore，the pa-per chooses the alienation mechanism of network public opinion crisis as the research object． After collecting and sorting public opinion crisis incidents in recent years，the basic concepts，expression forms，and specific patterns of public opinion alienation are systematically summarized． Then，under the architecture of public o-pinion supernetwork，the polarization algorithm of public opinion crisis alienation is proposed，which can be used to analyze the driving factors of alienation mechanism． Besides，the paper also presents a concrete scheme and program codes of the polarization algorithm． In the case study section，the polarization process and influencing factor are discussed by using the polarization algorithm．

Abstract:Altogether 1 052 energy conservation and emission reduction ( ECEＲ) policies in China from 1997 to 2013 are quantified from three dimensions: policy efforts，policy measures and policy objectives． How the synergy between measures and objectives of ECEＲ policies influences the effect of ECEＲ is studied using e-conometric models for different synergies between measures and objectives． Besides，the synergy，as well as its application by the government，between the measures and objectives in China is analyzed． The findings in-dicate that in ECEＲ policies，different synergies between the measures and objectives based on the administra-tive measure or guidance measure have significant discrepancies in their effects on ECEＲ，and the govern-ment’s usage of different synergies between the measures and objectives is also obviously different，as needs to be further improved． This paper clarifies the effect of different synergies between measures and objectives，and provides theoretical evidence for the establishment and effective implementation of synergy mechanism of EC-EＲ in China．

Abstract:To analyze the evolutionary game process of multi-cities’government collaboration in the context of social networks，through an integral modeling procedure of conceptual model，mathematical model，and com-puter model，a multi-agent simulation system，integrating evolutionary game theory and social networks model， is built． An asymmetrical evolutionary game system considering the individual differences on cost and benefit is constructed for the micro level of agent interaction ( considering the interaction between entire game and partial game) ，and a heterogeneous social network evolving system，considering the linking probability differences between nodes，is built for the macro level of social structure ( considering the interchange between global in-formation exchange and local information exchange) ，to achieve the bidirectional feedback and dynamic inter-action between micro game interaction and macro social network based on multi-agent system ( particularly by introducing the interacting willingness) ． The simulation experiments investigate the dynamic effect of network structure variables such as global interacting proportion and local interlinking probability，game coefficient var-iables such as governance benefit and punishment measure，and agent property variable such as decision-mak-ing personality composition，on the evolving process and revenue outcome of multi-cities’continuous game． Policy suggestions are given for multi-cities’coordination and regional integration． Besides，through multiple simulation experiments of each of the experiment plan，samples of data are built for the reliability test of the simulation model and results，and for the statistical analysis of experiment results and findings． This research provides new thoughts in computational simulation experiment research in the field of politics and public ad-ministration．