Abstract:The production-based capital asset pricing model ( PCAPM) derives asset prices in a general equi-librium conditional on profit maximization for corporate investors． Compared to the consumption-based capital asset pricing model，PCAPM can better satisfy the assumptions such as perfect information and rational inves-tors． This paper considers asset pricing in a PCAPM framework，and decomposes the production beta into a cash flow beta and a discount rate beta based on the present-value model． The empirical analysis is performed using data on aggregate investment and stock prices． The findings confirm that the cash flow beta from PCAPM is a significant pricing factor and can explain the cross-section variations in risk premium for different stocks in the Chinese stock market，while CCAPM fails to explain such variations．

Abstract:The realized volatilities of China’s financial futures is forecasted by constructing a Bayesian factor augmented heterogeneous autoregressive model ( DMA( DMS) -FAHAＲ) with time-varying parameters and sto-chastic volatility． The Bayesian inference is employed to obtain the latent factors of the daily，weekly，and monthly predictor sets including the lagged volatility variables，jump variables，and signed jump variables． Speculation variables are used to investigate the impact of speculation activities on the volatility forecast． The results suggest that the Bayesian factor augmented HAＲ model performs best for short-term，mid-term，and long-term forecasts among all candidate forecast models． Meanwhile，the time-varying Bayesian HAＲ models have superior forecast performances compared with the fixed parameter HAＲ models． In addition，better fore-cast performances are achieved after incorporating the speculation variables into the forecast models for both the stock index futures and the Treasury futures．

Abstract:In the paper，spectral analysis is used to identify the dominant frequency domain of macroeconomic variables，and wavelets method is used to decompose these macroeconomic variables into low frequency，busi-ness cycle frequency and high frequency domain components． Finally，the effects of central bank communica-tion and the actual intervention in different frequency domains are studied based on SVAＲ model． Ｒesults show that China’s economic growth is dominated by the long-period low frequency variation，and that business cycle frequency variation plays the second role． However，none of the three monetary instruments works well in the low frequency domain． Instead，they only have desired effects on the business cycle frequency variation． Mean-while，inflation is dominated by business cycle frequency variation，and price-type monetary instruments and central bank communication work well in this frequency domain． Frequency domain heterogeneity of expected inflation is not significant． Central bank communication has ideal effects on low and business cycle frequency variations of expected inflation，which shows its prominent role in macroeconomic expectation management． Quantitative tools do not work well in regulating macro economy．

Abstract:Considering multiple potential suppliers with supply risk and private cost information，this paper studies the optimal design of dual-sourcing auctions where the suppliers bid the wholesale prices． Firstly， under a general buyer revenue function，the optimal allocation rule and suppliers’bidding equilibrium are de-rived，and the results are compared with the single-sourcing case and the symmetric information case，respec-tively． Comparisons show that both the buyer and suppliers gain more expected profits than under the optimal single-sourcing mechanism，and information asymmetry benefits suppliers but hurts the buyer and the entire supply chain． Then，in a newsvendor setting and a monopoly setting，the paper further analyzes the diversifica-tion degree of quantity allocation，the effects of information asymmetry，and the value of the dual-sourcing op-tion． Ｒesults show that the diversification degree of quantity allocation increases with the supply risk and the homogeneity level of winners’profit-margin contributions to the buyer． The higher-cost winner charges a higher per unit information rent than the lower-cost winner does，which results in a lower diversification degree as compared with the symmetric information case． Moreover，when the supply risk or the number of bidders in-creases，the value of the dual-sourcing option increases．

Abstract:This paper studies order admission strategy for a Make to Order ( MTO) production system with ran-dom arriving orders． Our method includes two steps． In the first step，the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution ( TOPSIS) is adopted to calculate the degree of closeness between new orders and ideal orders which will be regarded as the comprehensive income of the orders，which is used to further prioritize the new order． In the second step，whether to accept the new order or not is analyzed through Markov Decision Process ( MDP) model． The result shows that when demand is close to or more than capacity，order hierarchy can increase benefits but not when the demand is largely less than the capacity． The income by strati-fying orders will increase with the demand，decrease with the capacity，and has an inverted U-shaped relation-ship with production lead time． The numerical result shows that the income is higher with more exquisite order hierarchy． When the hierarchy number is closer to the number of production lines，the income is closer to the maximum．

Abstract:This paper addresses the incentive problems arising from vertical information sharing of demand forecasts in a group-purchasing supply chain，which consists of one group purchasing organization ( GPO) and two complementary goods manufacturers． Each manufacturer who purchases a common component from the GPO，is considered to have imperfect demand information and is allowed to share partial information with the GPO． Through a multistage game model of incomplete information，the supply chain equilibrium is analyzed．Then，an incentive contract for information sharing，provided by the GPO to the manufacturers，is proposed based on revenue sharing． The results indicate that under simple wholesale pricing，information sharing hurts the supply chain by aggravating the negative effect of double marginalization and by impairing the positive effects of complementarity and prediction． As a result，both manufacturers are reluctant to share information with the GPO． However，when the revenue sharing contract is adopted，information sharing can benefit the supply chain by reducing the double marginalization effect，and both manufacturers are willing to share com-plete information with the GPO． As a result，Pareto improvement can be realized for all the members of the supply chain． Due to the setting of information asymmetry between the manufacturers，there exists a systematic loss compared with the optimal profit of the centralized supply chain． Furthermore，the loss increases monotoni-cally with the complementarity of goods and is unimodal with respect to the information accuracy． Finally，a numerical example is presented to illuminate the main conclusions of this paper．

Abstract:Budget constraints always play a critical role in the customer’s purchasing decisions． The literature has disproportionately focused on how firms induce customer valuation while remaining silent on the influence of consumers’budget constraint and on how firm’s marketing strategy should adjust in the presence of budget constraints． The paper studies these questions in the context of Ｒeferral Ｒeward Program ( ＲＲP ) ． A stylized model consisting of three players is built: A firm，an existing customer，and a potential customer． The budget constraint is the potential customer’s private information． The paper finds that the policy of high price and high referral reward is not always effective and there exists one ＲＲP optimal policy for the firm when the potential customer has less budget pressure and medium valuation． Furthermore，ＲＲP might be optimal whether the po-tential customer is with low-or high-valuation，but works of ＲＲP is in completely different manners． Our analy-sis is also extended to consider firm financing and customers’aversion toward paid referral．

Abstract:The Vickrey’s bottleneck model adopted a trip-based approach，which cannot consider the linkage between the commuter’s activity schedule and trip． This paper extends the Vickrey’s bottleneck model to ad-dress the departure time choice in the morning peak by introducing an activity-based bottleneck model． This model explicitly considers the commuter’s trade-off between the utility received by activities at home and at work and the disutility of travel between activity locations． The optimal time-varying toll and step toll are then investigated by using the activity-based bottleneck models with constant and linear marginal activity utility functions． The optimal toll solutions are also compared with the traditional Vickrey’s bottleneck model． The re-sults show that the curve of the optimal solution for the time-varying toll is not piecewise linear but piecewise quadratic when the marginal activity utility is linear． The traditional Vickrey’s bottleneck model overestimates the queuing delay at the bottleneck，the step toll level，and the start time and end time of the morning peak period． The optimal step tolls under the trip-based bottleneck model and the bottleneck model with constant marginal activity utility are half of the maximum value of the optimal time-varying tolls and exactly eliminate half of the total queuing delay at the bottleneck． The trip-based bottleneck model and the bottleneck model with constant marginal activity utility underestimate the role of step tolls in removing the bottleneck queues compared to the bottleneck model with the linear marginal activity utility．

Abstract:In this paper，a novel network flow dynamic model is developed based on the price-quantity regula-tion method of non-Walrasian equilibrium theory in Economics． In addition to the common notion that a travel-er’s route choice is only influenced by the travel time ( price) ，the presented model also considers the impact of the surplus capacity ( quantity) ． A price regulation model and a quantity regulation model are established separately to form the basis of a price-quantity regulation evolution model． The stable traffic flow pattern resul-ting from such route choice behavior is defined as the price-quantity mixed user equilibrium． It is found that the stable state of the price-quantity model is equivalent to the price-quantity mixed user equilibrium． Moreo-ver，both the separated price regulation and quantity regulation models are the special cases of the combined price-quantity regulation model． At last，a numerical example is conducted to analyze the proposed model． The results show that the proposed three models can describe the variation of route flow perfectly and the stable states of these models are corresponding to three types of equilibrium traffic flow patterns，respectively．

Abstract:From the perspective of social capital and role cognition in different institutional cultures，this paper gives an empirical analysis of how female entrepreneurs’social networks and human capital affect their entre-preneurial behavior． By using international authoritative databases: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor and Worldwide Governance Index: For a comparative study， the empirical analyses show that female entrepreneurs’social capital and entrepreneurial activity form an inverted U-sharped curve relationship，and that female’s high social capital will inhibit or increase the entrepreneurial activity rate depending on whether a threshhold is reached or not． Different economic development and human capital negatively moderate the a-bove curvilinear relationship，but the institutional environment strengthens this relationship． This study reveals the social status and social role expectations tied to women’s participation in entrepreneurial activities，and presents a theoretical framework of female social economic role into the entrepreneurial activity analysis．