ZHOU Jian , HUA Zhong-sheng , YIN Jian-wei , WU Xiao-bo , LIN Xu-dong
2018, 21(1):1-12.
Abstract:The scheduling and pricing problem of one charging station serving several electric vehicles in one area. Arrived electric vehicles ( customers) are selected and scheduled to serve from high to low sequentially based on 1) customers’total bid price for charging; 2) customers’unit bid price for charging; or 3) customers’total value of the charged electricity before the current time point. Different from the existing pricing mechanism based on the last unit electricity price, we propose the online pricing mechanism based on the average electricity price which does not rely on future electric vehicle’s charging demand. We prove that the proposed scheduling-pricingmechanism has the properties of individual rationality and incentive compatible. Comparedwith the last unit electricity pricing mechanism, it is proved thatthe proposed scheduling-pricing mechanism has the same expected customers’payment but a smaller variance of customers’payment under scheduling mechanisms 1 and 2, and has a smaller expectation and variance of customers’payment under scheduling mechanism 3. Numerical examples illustrate the effect of the proposed scheduling-pricing mechanism on reducing the uncertainty of customers’final payment for charging.
HAN Qi-heng , MIAO Er-sen , LI Jun-qing
2018, 21(1):13-30.
Abstract:The paper, using overlapping generations model, studies the impact of migration friction on the long-term dynamic evolution process of rural-urban migration. It shows that migration costs, the urban unemployment insurance, and search matching friction shape the basic characteristics of rural-urban migration if there is segmentation in Chinese labor market. The rural migrations will adjust the investment in education rationally when migration friction changes. The quantities of technical workers will be more sensitive to the changes of migration friction because education investment is a concave function and migration labor is risk averse. The more sensitive changes in the quantity og technical workers will lead to the more sensitive changes in salary, and the riddle of migration may result. Improving the housing and medical insurance of migrants and labour market mechanism will reduce the migration cost, raise employment probability of temporary workers, and will accelerate China’s urban-rural migration and be an effective policy to solve the riddle of migration in China.
GUO Kai , SUN Yin , XING Tian-cai
2018, 21(1):31-47.
Abstract:ALSTR-NLRE model is backwardly constructed. In the framework of LSTR-NLRE model, using Chinese economic data during the first quarter of 2000 and the third quarter of 2011, this paper positively analyzes the nonlinearity and asymmetry of Chinese monetary policy rule with LSTR, and positively analyzes and simulates the effects on indeterminacy based on threshold value and transfer speed. The backward Modeling process shows that, in order to make optimal monetary policy rule in the NLRE system consistent with nonlinear rule with LSTR, nonlinear Philips curve should be an exponential function. The positive analyses shows that: Chinese monetary policy has the characteristics of nonlinearity and asymmetry, and the threshold value is positively related with inflation variation. During the first quarter of 2000 and the third quarter of 2011, the threshold of inflation expectation is 3% , while from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2016, the threshold of inflation expectation is 2. 33% . A reasonable target of inflation expectation is very important to the central bank. Furthermore, threshold value has a greater influence on indeterminacy than transfer speed. In the high regime, nonlinear monetary policy rule with LSTR is more likely to stabilize output gap than inflation. In the low regime, nonlinear monetary policy rule with LSTR is more likely to stabilize inflation and is more likely to lead to output indeterminacy with long policy lag. If output gap is highly weighted, the central bank should increase inflation expectation above threshold value to put monetary policy into the high regime. If inflation is highly weighted, the central bank should decrease inflation expectation below the threshold value to put monetary policy into the low regime.
LUO Lan-lan , CHEN Shou , ZOU Zi-ran
2018, 21(1):48-57.
Abstract:At present, there are still considerable controversies about which term structure of risk-adjusted discount rate should be used in practice, and such controversies lead to different suggestions for similar investment projects. In order to solve this dispute, this article finds out the main factors affecting the structure of the discount rate from the perspective of the composition of capital productivity. By introducing the relative intensity of uncertainty from the future economy as well as from the project itself, the paper shows the relative intensity of uncertainty determines the coefficient of risk premium. It also shows that the coefficient of risk premium determines the term structure of risk-adjusted discount rate. The structure of the risk-adjusted discount rate is decreasing unless the coefficient of risk premium is greater than a threshold value.
WANG Wei , YANG Jiao-hui , WANG Ling
2018, 21(1):58-71.
Abstract:Current credit indicators cannot distinguish between actual financial development and excessive financialization, hence, this article, taking their difference into consideration, applies the financial competitiveness indicator and the excessive credit indicator to examine how these two indicators influence economic growth, based on the panel quantile regression model with a panel data of 116 countries from 2006 to 2015. It was found that high financial competitiveness can effectively promote economic growth, especially when the economic growth rate is low. Meanwhile, excessive credit can reduce economic growth prominently, and the influence is greater when the economic growth rate is high. This conclusion is robust in the post-crisis sub-sample, in the developing countries sub-sample, and for disaggregated financial competitiveness indicators, different excessive credit dummy variables and systematic GMM estimation. Therefore, it is very important for China to alleviate the problem of both low financial competitiveness and high excessive credit, in order to promote the economic growth in the new era.
YU Hong-hai , CHEN Bai-zhu , JIANG Zhen-kai , QIAN Yi-chuo
2018, 21(1):72-87.
Abstract:The removal of the ban on margin purchase and short sale in 2010 not only introduces a short-selling mechanism for Chinese market investors, but also provides a leverage amplification mechanism for speculative traders. Different from the previous perspective of institutional change, this paper, from the micro-behavioral perspective, studies the credit account investors’trading behavior and its predictability. Based on the sample data from December 2011 to August 2015, it is found that the credit account investors increase their margin purchase following the positive return of the stock, and increase the short sale after the negative return. Further studies show that intensified margin purchase can predict positive future returns, while intensified short sale can predict negative future returns. In addition, the margin purchases have a significant positive impact on the future stock price collapse, while the short sale can reduce the possibility of stock price collapse. Our study reveals the micro behavior of margin purchase and short sale, and also provides theoretical basis for further reforms.
2018, 21(1):88-96.
Abstract:Together with the traditional sentiment proxies ( closed-end fund discount, turnover and number of IPOs) in Baker and Wurgler ( 2006,2007) , the Chinese volatility index( iVX) is used as a new sentiment proxy to build a weekly composite sentiment index for the Chinese A-share market. The dependent relationship between the sentiment index and the market return and the forecasting effect of the sentiment index for the market return are analyzed. It is found that sentiment index and market return are negatively related. Their concurrent dependence relationship is not obvious, however. The sentiment index has a signicant forecasting power for the market return three weeks ahead. The inclusion of iVX can signicantly improve the forecasting ability, while the number of IPOs is not an effective sentiment proxy. In addition, when constructing the sentiment index using PCA, the performance of the rst two principal components is worse than that of the firrst principal component. The asymmetry of sentiment effect is analyzed and it is found that a positive sentiment index has a much greater impact on future market returns than a negative sentiment index.
LIU Hai-fei , BAI Wei , LI Dong-xin , XU Jin-tao
2018, 21(1):97-110.
Abstract:The successful operation of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Trading Mechanism has broadened the investment channels of investors, promoted the convergence of domestic capital market and international capital market, and had great influence upon China’s A-share stock market stability. Based on the complex network theory, the MST-Kruskal algorithm is used to construct different networks composed of the Shanghai Stock Connect market, the Hong Kong Stock Connect market or the Shanghai-Hong Kong stock market, and the anti-attack performances of different networks, in four stages before and after the pilot project and the official operation of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, are simulated. Then the stability of China stock market is studied. Our results show that, with the implementation of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect program, the market networks of Shanghai Stock Connect and Hong Kong Stock Connect merge constantly while maintaining their local cluster. Shanghai Stock Connect market network has a strong aggregation, while Hong Kong Stock Connect market network is relatively decentralized. Besides, the two markets maintain good robustness when facing random attacks, and show a certain vulnerability under a hostile attack. After Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect launched officially, the combination of the two markets improves the stability of stock markets.In all, our conclusions provide a new logic for the stability research of Chinese stock market, and new enlightenment for regulators to develop regulatory policies and listed companies to maintain the stability of their stock prices.
WANG Li , KONG Dong-min , DAI Yun-hao
2018, 21(1):111-126.
Abstract:Choosing the A-share listed firms in China during 2000 and 2012 as a study sample, the paper studies empirically local government promotion and its influence on firm innovation. Meanwhile, this influence is analyzed in detail from three dimensions of firm characters: property rights, the degree of marketization, and the firms’political connections. It is found that the incentives created by the impending promotion of local politicians will reduce the firms’innovation quantity and quality. The negative effect is stronger if the firm is local state-owned, or if the city’s marketization degree is lower, or if the firm has a political connection. After a further examination, it is found that the firm would establish a political relationship by charitable donations rather than rent-seeking, consequently to further squeeze out innovation. The results not only enrich the research on the impact of impending political promotion, but also offer clear policy implications on deepening the scientific and technological system reforms and accelerating firms’technological innovation.